This week’s NFL Germany game is certainly a downgrade from a matchup and quarterback standpoint from last week, but it’s still football! The Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots in Germany will be our last international game of the season, so enjoy the early morning football while you can.
Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones is a far cry from the quarterback battles we used to get between these two teams featuring Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t betting on this game. Let’s dive into the betting lines and the Colts vs. Patriots predictions, player props, and more from the PFN betting team.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Betting Lines
There hasn’t been much movement in betting odds since Sunday night, as the Colts have remained a short favorite. After being favorites for the first time this season last week, the Patriots are underdogs once again, and in Mac Jones’ career, he is just 3-16 straight up and 4-15 ATS when getting points.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Colts -2 - Moneyline
Colts -130, Patriots +110 - Over/Under
43.5
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Predictions
Bearman: Outside of the stunner vs. the Buffalo Bills, not much has gone right for New England this season. This game might be in Germany, but it’s still a bad roster the Patriots are taking.
MORE: NFL Team Over/Under Standings
The Colts ended a three-game losing streak with the win at the Panthers last week and are quietly 4-4 and in the middle of the pack. I don’t think they’re a playoff team, but top to bottom, they’re better than the Patriots. Don’t overthink this one.
Pick: Colts -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Overs are 6-3 in Colts games this season, which is the best in the NFL, but I’m anticipating some regression. A big reason for these overs hitting is the number of turnovers from both the Colts and their opponents this season, ranking sixth in takeaways and seventh in giveaways. Over their last four games, there have been 17 combined turnovers from the Colts and their opponents.
The Colts might be seventh in points per game, but their offense is 22nd in EPA/play, and the Patriots rank 30th. It may be a tall order asking these quarterbacks to protect the football, but despite two pick-sixes from the Colts last week, the under hit for the first time in four weeks.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Patriots rank dead last through nine weeks in time of possession, and that’s not likely to change this week against the Colts team that owns the fifth-highest rush rate over expectation this season. With Jonathan Taylor trending in the right direction (his snap share last week was similar to his rate of 2021), Indianapolis’ run game should have both quality and quantity in terms of carries.
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That is to say that the possession count is going to be limited for the Pats. We know they don’t move the ball consistently (second in yards per play and 27th in third-down offense), and given that they rank 24th in takeaways per game, short fields are unlikely to bail them out.
The Patriots have cleared 20 points once this season (29 points against the Bills), but even in that game, 14 of their points were set up off of turnovers.
Pick: Patriots under 20.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)
Rolfe: We have seen Taylor’s role in this offense continuing to expand since his return. He finished with 23 touches last week, including five receptions on five targets. That is three times in four weeks that Taylor has finished with three or more receptions.
When you add that the Patriots have allowed an average of 5.6 receptions per game to the RB position, it makes Taylor’s line of 2.5 receptions interesting, especially if you can get them at nice odds.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor over 2.5 receptions (+105 at DraftKings)
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