Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has officially been given permission to seek a trade ahead of the 2023 season kicking off, which could have all sorts of ramifications on the fantasy football world. We will dive into what this move means for his teammates when the time is right, but for now, let’s take a look at what a team will be getting in the superstar and what teams figure to be in the mix.
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What Went Wrong in 2022 for Jonathan Taylor?
Well, to start, the man had nowhere to run. I’m told that’s bad for business. His yards per carry before contact dropped by 22.7% from his first two seasons, a drop that highlights the struggles of this offensive line.
Then there was the Colts’ offense as a whole. As a predictable unit, they fell from ninth to 30th in scoring. That lack of creativity is largely to blame for JT’s struggles.
Over 58% of Taylor’s carries came on first down, a situation in which defenses were labeling as “obvious run spots” for this grounded offense and were able to limit him to 3.9 yards per carry (down two full yards from his rate in 2021).
The lack of offensive versatility also hurt Taylor in the passing game. The Colts’ offense scared exactly no one down the field, so Taylor’s targets were essentially live grenades thrown his way behind the line of scrimmage with little help.
You need proof? His aDOT was -1.73 yards. How crazy is that? The next lowest among running backs with at least 40 targets was James Conner … at -0.81. Targeting him out of the backfield wasn’t some sort of feature like it was in 2021 (9.0 yards per catch), it was a cry for help (5.1 yards per catch).
Colts have given All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade, per league sources. Other teams now are weighing whether to make an offer to the Colts and what would be fair value. pic.twitter.com/AT7GgJGLAQ
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 21, 2023
Potential Suitors for Jonathan Taylor
I’m speculating 100% on these potential landing places, but here are a handful that will at least be in the conversation, listed in order from most fantasy friendly to least. There are obviously a million moving pieces here, from the pieces in the potential trade to the health of JT, but it’s always fun to get ahead of these things and project forward.
Minnesota Vikings
We all are willing to admit that Dalvin Cook has lost a step … the dude racked up nearly 1,500 yards and 10 scores last season with the Vikings!
Taylor’s struggles last season, I believe, were more a product of situation than physical decline. Him joining this potent offense would slide Alexander Mattison back into a very familiar role. For my money, this is the most friendly spot and would have Taylor pushing for RB3 in my ranks.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins posted the 11th-best scoring offense last season (sixth in yards per game) despite a backfield that consisted of oft-injured veterans (two of three who missed nine games apiece).
Their flirtatious behavior around Cook was no secret, and while De’Von Achane is a nice long-term piece, a move like this would make the ‘Fins as scary as anybody in the league when they have the ball. A move to Miami would put Taylor in position to move up to RB4 in my ranks.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are on the short list of teams that can claim to have the best offense in the league, and yet, their running game is currently spearheaded by a largely unproven James Cook and a nice player in Damien Harris, who we all have labeled as more of a secondary options these days.
The Cook and Devin Singletary combination ran for 1,326 yards last season, but that’s not the impressive part … the 5.0 yards per carry is.
The versatility of Josh Allen opens up lanes that simply didn’t exist in Indy last season and could result in a massive yardage season should Taylor head to Upstate NY.
The only catch here is touchdowns. Maybe Buffalo would be smart and allow Taylor to take some of that heavy lifting off of their franchise QB, but until we see that be the case, I’m assuming they would do what has worked for them in the past. That minor concern would have him back to where he was prior to all of this nonsense … RB5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is the least friendly offense of the bunch, and that obviously carries limitations. But it’s not like Taylor was set to play for a juggernaut in Indy.
The Bucs not only lack a proven every-down back, but they’re also in need of an offensive identity with Tom Brady now enjoying retirement.
Of these mentioned teams, this is the only one where I think game script could negatively hurt Taylor. Say what you will about Rachaad White, but he proved capable as a pass catcher last season, and that is why Taylor would be my RB7 if suiting up for Tampa Bay this season.
Should You Draft Jonathan Taylor?
It is, obviously, always important to be price sensitive in situations like this. Is Taylor worthy of the first round I assigned him before any of these issues came to light? No. But you’re not going to be asked to pay that price. Not right now, at least.
At this moment, Taylor’s ADP is hovering in the middle of the second round, and I’d be happy to roll the dice at that point. If you’re drafting before any trade comes to light, I’m more likely to go this direction in a shallower format where the upside of the replacement-level players is higher, and you can afford to swing big.
In deeper leagues, I’m proceeding with caution. Could Taylor be a solid option in an RB-RB build that features some running back fliers in the middle rounds to help offset some risk? You bet!