The Indianapolis Colts will face the Denver Broncos in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts and Broncos skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB | IND
Anthony Richardson is still symbolic of a deer trying to walk on ice when it comes to his ability to throw the football. He’s 6 of 27 in his last two games when throwing 10+ yards downfield and 4 of 20 when pressured.
But in the same way that not all strong “real life” production pays off in fantasy, not all fantasy-viable stat lines reflect above-average “real life” QB play.
Richardson has been a top-10 performer at the position in two of his three games back in the saddle, offsetting the limitations as a passer with 39 attempts and three scores on the ground. His type of skill set can overcome any matchup, which is why I’d never outright dismiss him.
However, I’m very much looking for other options (Brock Purdy vs. LAR, Will Levis vs. CIN, and Kirk Cousins at LV, to name a few).
I went over Richardson’s limitations as a passer in specific spots, and those flaws figure to be magnified against this strong Broncos secondary. Denver ranks in the 80th percentile (or higher) in most pressure metrics, including the ability to produce heat with their front four.
Richardson truthers — to which I am one, and that is how I land on this note — might be inclined to ignore that fact, with the thought being that he can simply run away from pressure and pick up chunk gains with his legs.
In theory, that’s logical. In practice, not so much. You remember those 39 rush attempts I mentioned earlier? Just two of them have come when dropping back and feeling pressure.
The runs have been either schemed or one-and-done in terms of reads, and given Denver’s ability to penetrate, I expect Richardson to have a ton of resistance across the board.
If AR-5 is your starting QB and the waiver wire is a wasteland, you’re not making a reckless decision. That said, the aforementioned QBs aren’t trusted by most, but I feel good about plugging them in over Richardson in a week in which some seasons are on the line.
Bo Nix, QB | DEN
The Bo Nix profile looks good when you look at the macro. The rookie has five top-10 finishes and has been a top-seven producer at the position in three of his past six games. The speed of the NFL hasn’t been overwhelming and he’s showing increased comfort in challenging defenses vertically (56% deep ball completion rate over his past three games, up from 37.5% previously).
A more micro approach, however, will raise some fantasy red flags. The most damning fact is that he has nine rushing yards on his resume over his past four games. Nix isn’t Lamar Jackson, but he was previously averaging 32.8 yards on the ground, and that is the sort of production that can lift him up the fantasy rankings. On top of the limited rushing percentage, he has failed to reach a 60% completion rate in consecutive games for the first time this season.
At the end of the day, you have to be aware of a wider range of outcomes. That said, I’m willing to gamble in this spot. The Colts rank 27th in yards per pass against and second in pace of play — in short, they allow opponents to be efficient and give them the ball back quickly.
I’ve got Nix penciled in as my QB10 this week coming out of his bye, ahead of Week 14 darling Sam Darnold.
Audric Estimé, RB | DEN
We thought maybe that Audric Estimé was the lead back in Denver after he recorded 14 carries in the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs in Week 10, but he has just 12 carries (15 touches) in the three games since.
There will be a fun conversation to be had this summer when it comes to which young Broncos running back we want to fall in love with, as Javonte Williams will be an unrestricted free agent once this season wraps up. But until then, there’s no realistic path to trusting any RB on Denver’s roster during your fantasy playoffs.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN
Jaleel McLaughlin is a part of this Denver backfield mess, which means you’re stuck in this weird holding pattern where you can’t play or cut any of them.
If I had to pick one to speculate on this week, McLaughlin would be my option. I like what he has shown in space, and with the Colts ranking as the fifth-best defense at creating pressure when blitzing, I could see a few designed screens and dumpoffs result in chunk gains.
You’re holding all exposure to this backfield and simply hoping that someone runs away with the lead role by the end of Week 15.
Javonte Williams, RB | DEN
Sean Payton doesn’t want his opponents to know what is coming on the ground, which means us as fantasy managers are fighting an uphill battle. Over the past two games, Javonte Williams has turned 12 carries into — checks notes — -1 rushing yard.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, Williams’ six targets have netted just nine yards. I’m not 100% sure that if we condense all Denver RB production into a single back that it would rank favorably, but with three backs splitting that work, you can’t play any of them with confidence.
Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND
If you drafted Jonathan Taylor in the top 20 this summer, odds are good that your team is either struggling or is being carried by a strong supporting cast. The former All-Pro has just one finish better than RB12 this season (Week 3) and has failed to reach per-touch PPR expectations in five straight games (his last game with more than 12 receiving yards came in September).
All of that said, is there any doubt that the Colts commit to a rested version of Taylor coming out of the bye as a reasonable underdog?
Two teams that ranked high in pre-game rush rate over expectation at the time of their meeting with the Broncos saw their running back produce profits for their fantasy managers: J.K. Dobbins totaled 102 yards with a score in Week 6, and Derrick Henry racked up 133 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
I think it’s reasonable to worry about Taylor’s status as an elite back in this Anthony Richardson-led system, but it’s not fair to regress him to the point where he’s not in your lineup. There’s the potential for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in this spot — if either of those things happens, I think we are just fine.
Alec Pierce, WR | IND
Playing in the thin air of Denver, potentially lining up across Pat Surtain II, and relying on Anthony Richardson’s right arm — Alec Pierce’s profile isn’t very easy to support with confidence this weekend.
Maybe the bye week ups the creativity of the Colts’ offense, and they put Pierce in a position to win downfield. But are you comfortable in betting your fantasy season on Richardson cashing in such an opportunity?
The burner has just three catches on 10 targets over his past two games. I have concerns when it comes to efficiency, volume, and scoring equity. Outside of that, Pierce is a great play.
Christian Watson (at SEA) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. CIN) are two deep-ball receivers I prefer over Pierce this week, with Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. BAL) and DeMario Douglas (at ARI) checking in as “boring” options who I have much more confidence in over Indy’s riskiest option.
Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN
Courtland Sutton has seen at least eight targets in six straight games, but he’s not just a volume play.
During this run as the alpha in Denver, he’s produced 31.4% over expectations, meshing well with the developmental patterns of Bo Nix in an offense that ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation through 14 weeks.
The volume creates a nice floor, the efficiency gives us stability, and the matchup opens up access to a top-10 week. This season, the Colts are allowing the seventh-highest red-zone completion percentage (63.8%), a weakness I like Sean Payton to pick on given this offense’s struggles to run the ball.
I’m betting Nix’s over in pass attempts and completions — if those bets come through, you’re going to be thrilled to have Sutton in your lineup.
Josh Downs, WR | IND
Josh Downs continues to battle a shoulder injury, and his status seems to be on the pessimistic side of questionable as we sit here today. I don’t think he’d be subject to a Patrick Surtain II shadow should he suit up, and that projection has him sitting as a fine PPR Flex play in my preliminary “if-active” rankings.
Top PPR WRs, Weeks 8-11:
- Ja’Marr Chase: 113.6 PPR points
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 84.0
- CeeDee Lamb: 82.8
- Cooper Kupp: 81.1
- Courtland Sutton: 74.2
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 71.7
- Calvin Ridley: 70.1
- Downs: 67.8
My hunch is that your default ranking of Downs isn’t nearly high enough. His health and his quarterback introduce plenty of risks, but the versatile skill set is plenty to land him in your PPR lineup with confidence should he clear all physical hurdles entering the weekend.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND
My ranking of Michael Pittman Jr. relies on Josh Downs’ status to a large degree. I view Downs (shoulder) as the top receiver in Indy’s offense, but with Shane Steichen very noncommittal to his status for this weekend, I’m penciling in Pittman as a PPR Flex play.
On the positive side of things, I think there’s an avenue for Pittman to win as a big slot option. The Broncos rank second in both pressure rate (39% of dropbacks) and blitz percentage (36%), a defensive profile that can encourage quick-hitting routes.
Now, Anthony Richardson taking those looks is a different worry entirely, but the idea of a receiver like Pittman, sans Downs, is something that has my attention.
Should Downs suit up, I’ll move Pittman to my bench as his profile is too thin to split his role in half. For the season, he has one top-20 finish and hasn’t seen a target with his feet in the paint since Week 6.
This Colts offense carries some weekly upside, but don’t confuse “upside” with “stability.” Jonathan Taylor is the only skill player in Indianapolis’ offense that you’re starting with confidence weekly.