Week 11 of the college football season has come and gone. And right on schedule, it’s once again time for the Sunday Stock Exchange. With playoff implications looming large, which teams are moving up, and who’s moving down?
Sunday Stock Exchange | College Football Week 11
Stock Up: TCU Horned Frogs
Everyone held their breath and waited to see if TCU would slip up in Week 11, fumbling their College Football Playoff hopes. They didn’t.
In the same week that Oregon was upset by Washington, the Horned Frogs took care of business on both sides of the ball against a formidable and talented Texas team. Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, Quentin Johnston, and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson all came up big.
TCU remains undefeated with this latest victory — standing at 10-0 with games against 6-4 Baylor and 4-6 Iowa State left on the schedule. There’s still a bit more football left, including a prospective Big 12 Championship game that will again put the pressure on Sonny Dykes’ squad. But on Saturday, TCU fought through the pressure, and their standing in the playoff field only strengthened.
Stock Down: Oregon Ducks
Remember when we said last week that Oregon’s fate was in their own hands, so long as they could stay the course and win out? That didn’t last long.
To the Ducks’ credit, they fought valiantly against a high-octane Washington Huskies attack, trading blows until the final seconds. But Washington edged out Oregon 37-34, giving the Ducks their second, most crushing loss.
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Oregon had already dropped one game this season (Georgia in Week 1). But they were poised to potentially make the CFB Playoff if they were able to win out.
The loss to Washington, however, puts Oregon at 8-2, with two more tough games left against Utah and Oregon State. A lot of credit needs to be given to Bo Nix, Dan Lanning, and the vast talent base on defense for Oregon’s success in 2022. But in the playoff race, they’ll fall just short.
Stock Down: Pac-12 Playoff Hopes
Oregon was the Pac-12’s best hope for representation in the CFB Playoff this year. Now that they’ve accrued their second loss, the conference’s chances of claiming a spot in the four-team semifinal have notably decreased.
The Pac-12 team with the best — and likely only chance at this point — is USC. But even at 9-1, the Trojans need to win out against UCLA and Notre Dame in back-to-back weeks. And if they make it to the championship game, another loss would be hard to come back from.
The Trojans position themselves best by winning out. Even then, it’s hard to say if they’ll have a strong enough résumé to beat out the loser of Michigan-Ohio State. There are still a number of outcomes remaining, but the Pac-12 is suddenly much less present among them.
Stock Up: LSU Tigers
Arkansas gave LSU a challenge, but the Tigers outlasted the Razorbacks 13-10, largely on the back of their defense. Harold Perkins Jr. is a star in the making at linebacker, and other players like Mekhi Garner, Micah Baskerville, and Jaquelin Roy all had strong days against Sam Pittman’s squad.
We said last week that, while LSU’s playoff hopes were overall very slim, they could keep those hopes alive by maintaining control of the SEC East. That’s exactly what they did in Week 11.
The win against Arkansas puts them at 8-2 and 6-1 in conference play, with games against Texas A&M and UAB left. With Ole Miss’ loss to Alabama, LSU is the only team in the East with just one conference loss. Until they play Georgia, LSU’s destiny is still very much their own.
Stock Up: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina was ranked 15th in the AP rankings this past week. It’s safe to say they’re due for a major boost. The Tar Heels gutted out another impressive high-scoring win against a respectable conference opponent, this time outlasting Wake Forest 36-34 in a four-quarter shootout.
Drake Maye passed for 448 yards and scored four total touchdowns in a game that strengthened his Heisman candidacy. And UNC continues to rocket ahead.
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North Carolina doesn’t have the strength of schedule — yet — but their record is solid. They have just one loss to Notre Dame, a team that’s now 7-3 and ranked, after a slow start to the year. UNC has the ACC Coastal division locked up. They have a game against NC State on deck in the final week and a conference championship date with Clemson after that.
For now, this Tar Heels squad is still lingering in the shadows. But they have one of the strongest offenses in the country, with two of their biggest opportunities to rise still yet to come.
Stock Down: Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky started the year 4-0. At one point, we were talking about them as a fringe playoff contender if they could beat a ranked Ole Miss squad in early October. They lost that game, and then three of their next five — against Tennessee, South Carolina, and most recently, Vanderbilt.
Yes, Vanderbilt.
The Wildcats will be in a bowl game, but it very much feels like a disappointing consolation prize, for a team that generated a lot of hype in the summer. Will Levis, a quarterback penciled in as an early-round 2023 NFL Draft selection, has not been consistent and still struggles to operate in structure. That inability to execute has severely hampered one of the SEC’s more talented teams.
Stock Up: Iowa Hawkeyes and Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Big Ten West is an absolute mess, and we love (hate) it. Illinois was in the driver’s seat two weeks ago, but they’ve since lost two straight games to Michigan State and Purdue. Meanwhile, Iowa and Minnesota are both on three-game win streaks, while the Boilermakers are trying to ride their new momentum through the rest of the year.
Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, and Purdue are all tied at 4-3 in conference play, and the tiebreakers are almost too much to follow. Iowa has a win over Purdue but lost to Illinois. Purdue lost to Iowa but has wins over Illinois and Minnesota. And Minnesota, despite having losses to Illinois and Purdue, could potentially take control of the race by beating Iowa next week.
One thing is clear: Winning out is what you want if you’re one of these teams. But Illinois, with a game against third-ranked Michigan on deck, may already be penciled in at 1-1 over the next two weeks.
In such a nebulous situation, the advantage may go to Iowa and Minnesota, who are the only two Big Ten West contenders with a head-to-head matchup remaining. The winner not only knocks out an opponent but takes one step closer to winning out. Thus, both Iowa and Minnesota have to enter next week with a sense of authority. A Big Ten Championship blowout loss at the hands of Michigan or Ohio State is within their grasp.
Stock Up: UConn Huskies
Shoutout to the UConn Huskies, who became (checks notes) bowl eligible on Saturday, for the first time since 2015. It was just several months ago that we sent UConn’s stock down for a slow start to the season against Utah State. But the Huskies, under Jim Mora Jr., have since gone 6-4, and are headed to the postseason.
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There were lumps along the way in a tough schedule that included Michigan, NC State, and Syracuse. But UConn also scored impressive victories against Fresno State, FIU, Boston College, and most notably, 19th-ranked Liberty this past weekend.
Heading into 2022, the Huskies were coming off a 1-11 season and had gone 4-32 over their past three campaigns. They’ve exceeded that three-year win total in one season under Mora — a sign that things are looking up in the northeast.
Stock Down: CFP Chaos Enthusiasts
As mentioned earlier, there are still several possibilities left on the CFB Playoff front. But with each passing week, the potential field of teams gets a little bit smaller.
The four undefeated teams at the top — Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU — are all in very good position. If TCU keeps winning, they’re in. The winner of Ohio State-Michigan is almost assuredly in.
After that, it’s still a bit murky — but we have a better idea of who the players will be. LSU still has an outside shot if they can shock the world and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Tennessee might still have life if other teams cannibalize themselves. USC remains a fleeting, but surely present, hope for the Pac-12.
And we can’t forget about North Carolina just yet, with Drake Maye and Josh Downs leading the charge. Though they’re much farther back in the rankings, they have a game against ranked NC State and a prospective ACC Championship showing against Clemson still on tap. There may be a combination of infighting and individual success that lands the Tar Heels higher than many expect.
Things aren’t quite as chaotic as they were a week ago. But to be fair, they’re still pretty chaotic. The massive implications make the next few weeks of college football a must-watch spectacle.