With the Michigan Wolverines defeating Ohio State, the College Football Playoff rankings should see their biggest shake-up of the season. With just one week until “Selection Sunday,” what do our College Football Playoff predictions suggest when the CFP Selection Committee reveals their latest rankings?
Predictions for the College Football Playoff
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Michigan Wolverines
- TCU Horned Frogs
- USC Trojans
1) Georgia Bulldogs
For 15 minutes on Saturday afternoon, the nation was on upset alert. Georgia Tech’s early touchdown combined with a stubborn first quarter defensive resistance threatened to shake up the CFP rankings in a way that no one had expected coming into college football Week 13.
However, after taking the lead in the second quarter through a Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint touchdown, the Bulldogs pulled away in typical dominating style in the second half. The 37-14 win over their bitter rivals ensured that the Bulldogs finished the regular season undefeated, and maintained their standing as the number one team in the nation in our College Football Playoff predictions.
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There will undoubtedly be some discussion about whether the Michigan Wolverines’ win over Ohio State — previously the number two team in the CFP rankings — is worthy of them leapfrogging not just their conference rival but also Georgia. You can certainly make an argument that the Bulldogs’ “quality wins” have come over teams that have fallen from grace in recent weeks.
However, the combination of their unbeaten dominance, their stingy defense, and a balanced offense where one week, it’s gashing you on the ground and then punishing you in the passing game the next, should be more than enough for Georgia to head to the SEC Championship Game as the number one ranked team in the nation.
2) Michigan Wolverines
With Georgia entrenched as the number one team in the nation, the first significant shift in our College Football Playoff predictions comes with Michigan ascending to the second spot in the CFP rankings. With their win over Ohio State, this is a formality, an inevitability, for the reigning Big Ten champions.
The Wolverines turned in their most impressive performance of the season at just the right time. “The Game” rivalry was always going to decide the destination of the Big Ten title and ultimately the conference’s representation in the College Football Playoff. However, few could have predicted that it would be decided so dominantly in favor of Jim Harbaugh’s maize and blue boys.
A combination of pressure and questionable decision-making from Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud ensured the Wolverines’ defense made its mark on the Buckeyes. It’s a unit that’s been ferocious all season long and has ensured their safe passage through the season to this point. It’s a unit that has been a key point of their CFP candidacy.
In the biggest game of the season, and with their main weapon limited, it was the offense that provided the mythical “balance” that the CFP Selection Committee has valued so highly this season. You can’t get much more balanced than two 60+ yard passing touchdowns (both to Cornelius Johnson) and two 60+ yard rushing touchdowns (both from Donovan Edwards).
Balance, the biggest of wins, and a Big Ten Championship should be enough to see Michigan in the “final four” come “Selection Sunday.”
3) TCU Horned Frogs
In terms of pure point differential, TCU laid down one of the biggest wins of college football in Week 13. The nature of the win might also prove significant, with the Horned Frogs projected to move up to third in our College Football Playoff predictions on the back of a dominant performance that answered oft-targeted questions.
While Matt Campbell’s Iowa State team is a shadow of Cyclones teams of recent years, TCU obliterated them in all phases of the game. With 24 unanswered points in the first quarter alone, the Horned Frogs were never in a position to have to come from behind, a regular sticking point with the CFP Selection Committee.
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The TCU defense that was used as a reason to hold them outside of the top four in earlier CFP rankings releases forced three turnovers and held Iowa State to 4.5 yards per pass attempt. They also held an opponent under 20 points for the fourth time this season and just the second time in Big 12 play.
Unbeaten during the regular season, TCU faces Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. It’s a win-and-in scenario where there should be zero chance of any other team being able to pass them. With the way this season has gone, even a defeat in that game might not rule them out completely.
4) USC Trojans
While victories for three of the previous top four teams in the rankings made the majority of these College Football Playoff predictions simple, the fourth and final spot promised to be a difficult decision. That was particularly the case given the very clear message issued by the CFP Selection Committee last week when they had the two-loss LSU Tigers ranked ahead of the USC Trojans.
However, LSU going full Pac-12 and losing to a Texas A&M team with just four wins ahead of college football Week 13 made fitting the final team into our CFP projections substantially easier. There really is no other team that should be inhabiting the last spot in the “final four” than the presumptive Pac-12 champions.
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A narrow loss to Utah and the porous nature of their defense might cause some questions over their candidacy — particularly when compared to an Ohio State team that figures to be the biggest challenger to the Trojans.
However, one of the most explosive offenses in the nation once again bared their teeth in a convincing win over Notre Dame, an arguably more impressive despatching of the Fighting Irish than the Buckeyes managed in Week 1. Caleb Williams should beat C.J. Stroud to the Heisman Trophy and USC should beat Ohio State to the College Football Playoff.