Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet took another step forward last season but fell short of being a TE1 in fantasy. With DJ Moore in town and Justin Fields having another year under his belt, is there more room for Kmet to grow? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Cole Kmet’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
In 2021, Kmet commanded a 17.1% target share. He averaged 7.1 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the TE21. While this may not seem like anything we should care about, he did this despite scoring zero touchdowns.
Naturally, fantasy managers knew Kmet would not score zero touchdowns in 2022. So, there was a fair amount of buzz behind him as a breakout.
Kmet’s target share increased to 19.3%, and he wound up scoring seven times last season. Yet, this was only enough to get him to 8.7 ppg and a TE16 finish.
The Bears were one of the most run-heavy teams in NFL history last season. They ran the ball on 56% of their plays, including in a neutral game script.
As a result, Kmet’s 2.2% increase in target share resulted in a 24-target decrease. This is despite him paying in all 17 games each of the past two years.
Since the end of the season, the Bears have added a true NFL WR1 in Moore. They still have Darnell Mooney. And although they let David Montgomery walk, they signed D’Onta Foreman and drafted Roschon Johnson. It’s impossible for the Bears to throw less than they did last season, but I still project them to be among the bottom five in pass rate.
Should You Draft Cole Kmet This Year?
Kmet’s ADP is somehow TE13, No. 128 overall. That one really threw me for a loop. I just don’t see any plausible upside. His ceiling outcome is something like 700 yards and eight touchdowns, which would make him a low TE1, at best.
I have Kmet ranked as my TE17, and I have no interest in drafting him. If I miss at tight end and need to stream, I can find 10 ppg on the waiver wire.
Even if I punt the position, I want to draft a player that at least has the potential to reach 11-12 ppg. Kmet does not. Therefore, I cannot recommend fantasy managers select him even in the latter stages of fantasy drafts.