Cole Kmet came on strong in his third season, ranking fourth at the position in fantasy football points per game from Week 8 through the end of the season. Of course, there’s the natural concern that comes with banking on a pass catcher in the run-heaviest offense in the NFL, but there are more teams in your fantasy league than there are reliable tight ends in the NFL, thus making any sort of “pop” TE worth diving in to.
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Cole Kmet’s Fantasy Outlook
The Chicago Bears brought in DJ Moore this offseason in an effort to support their budding star in Justin Fields, and they moved on from David Montgomery, the franchise’s lead back for each of the past four seasons. Even with the significant moves at the skill positions, there is little doubt that Chicago’s offense is going to look significantly different. They have a player in Fields with a unique skill set and are likely to leverage that the best they can.
Touchdowns. That’s what this season is going to come down to for Kmet. Not only because that’s the nature of the position but because there are only so many receiving yards to go around in Chicago.
Last season, no Bear averaged even 4.2 targets per game, and opportunities aren’t going to be easier to earn with Moore (12th in targets over the past four seasons) in town. Speaking of Moore, he was allergic to the end zone during his first four seasons (14 touchdowns on 301 receptions) but cashed in seven times on 63 catches last season.
What Do We Make of Kmet’s Scoring in 2022?
Through 40 career games, Kmet had 100 catches and two — count’em two — touchdown receptions on his NFL résumé. He, however, found paydirt seven times in his final 10 games of 2022 and has fantasy managers unsure of what to think.
Well, as it turns out, Kmet’s 2022 profile is rare. Very rare. Like “reserved for fantasy royalty” type of rare.
Over the past 15 seasons, only three times has a tight end in one of his first three seasons, recorded a 70% catch rate with seven touchdowns while averaging over 5.5 yards per catch after the reception:
- 2011 Rob Gronkowski
- 2013 Julius Thomas
- 2022 Cole Kmet
That’s some serious company for the Golden Domer to keep. Gronk averaged 15.6% more points than anyone else at the position in the four seasons following that breakout, and Thomas scored a dozen times in his encore season despite missing three games. I’m not here to tell you Kmet is going to do either one of those things, but the statistical profile he put up last season with a quarterback who is on the come up was nothing short of special.
Fields completed 87.5% of his red-zone passes when targeting Kmet, with 62.5% of red-zone Kmet targets resulting in a score (all other Bears: 60% complete, 21.2% TD rate).
A pessimist would point to natural regression and Moore’s addition as potential roadblocks in 2023, and I won’t argue that. But there’s no denying that Fields had a favorite target in close and at a position where touchdowns drive value outside of the very elite. Kmet’s role is a friendly one, even in a low-volume passing offense.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Kmet at His ADP?
Kmet is currently being drafted as the TE13 in the 11th round, an asking price that isn’t very prohibitive. With very few managers drafting multiple tight ends, if you play in a 10-12 team league, there’s a good chance he falls even further as a result of your opponents having their TE slot filled and more concerned with building depth elsewhere.
In any event, the idea that Kmet showed TD-scoring upside with a developing QB is worth the investment. Again, the man scored seven times last season with the Bears throwing the ball 32.8% of the time in the red zone (league average: 50.9%). It stands to reason to think that rate can’t really dip further.
And while Moore offers some competition, it’s not as if he has a track record of scoring in bunches. The weekly floor is low … as it is for any tight end outside of the top two tiers. If you elect to wait on drafting a tight end in 2023, Kmet is as good a target as any.