As the Kansas City Chiefs continue to navigate league protocols, so must fantasy football managers in Week 16 as their playoff lives hang in the balance. Despite letting down managers last week, RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams have a chance for a big bounce-back game just when fantasy managers need it the most. As they take on the Steelers Sunday afternoon, are both Edwards-Helaire and Williams must-starts, or are they not as much of a sure-fire fantasy play as we might believe?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues his up and down fantasy season
Edwards-Helaire has been a disappointment for most of this season. Although he put together back-to-back 100-yard games in Weeks 4 and 5, we had not seen him do much again until Week 14 when he found the end zone twice against the Raiders despite only rushing 10 times.
Then, we get to Week 15, and CEH once again disappoints. Against the Chargers, Edwards-Helaire rushed just 9 times for 32 yards and caught 2 of 4 targets for 18 yards, ending the day with 9.0 PPR points as the RB31.
There is one positive takeaway for Edwards-Helaire coming out of Week 15. He played on 70.8% of the team’s offensive snaps, which was the first time since Week 1 he had crossed the 70% mark.
Additionally, since making his return from the IR due to an ankle injury (Weeks 6-10), CEH has finished as an RB2 or better in three of four games, with two of those inside the top 15. Over this time, he has averaged 13.8 PPR points and is the RB16 in fantasy. However, most of CEH’s fantasy production has come off the back of 3 touchdowns, which might make him a bit riskier for fantasy than initially assumed.
Darrel Williams continues to see his opportunities drop in recent weeks
Over the last five weeks, Williams has watched his snaps drop every single week, finally bottoming out last week with just 29.2% of the offensive snaps. He has seen less than 50% of the snaps in each of the last three games, and in Week 15, saw just 5 carries for 12 yards. Even more disappointing is that Williams failed to see a single target after posting more than 30 yards in five of his previous seven games, including three with 60 or more.
Williams has now seen 5 or fewer carries in each of his last four games and has taken a clear backseat to Edwards-Helaire. It’s not surprising, given the draft capital invested in CEH and the expectations. Even with diminished reps, Williams can still bring some value, assuming he can get back some of those critical receiving reps that have carried his fantasy value even as a backup. And that might happen in a big way this week as the Chiefs attempt to navigate the current COVID-19 situation they are facing.
Monitor the status of both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
Virtually every team is being affected by COVID-19 in some compacity. Whether it is in the change in how they conduct meetings, losing coaches, or players. We have seen numerous teams take substantial hits, but this might take the cake.
Watching both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, arguably the two best players in the world at their positions, head to the reserve/COVID-19 list less than 24 hours apart is a gut punch. None more so than to a Chiefs team that is trying to secure the No. 1 seed in the playoffs in a year where it has never meant more.
Combined, they represent 50% of the targets (226), 49.7% of the receptions (185), 54% of the yards (2,244), and 53% of the receiving touchdowns (16). If neither is able to return, we could see the Cheifs opt to run the ball more or use their RBs in the passing game more than usual.
Plus, if you are going to attack the Steelers’ defense, you do it on the ground. Virtually anyone and everyone has been able to run on them at will this season. So why should Week 16 be any different?
Both CEH and Williams can be started in Week 16 but will have different expectations
If there was a game for Edwards-Helaire to get back on track for fantasy managers, this is it. The Chiefs play host to a Steelers defense whose ability, or lack thereof, to stop the run is almost laughable for a franchise that has built its foundation on controlling the line of scrimmage.
Over the last four weeks, the Steelers are dead last in fantasy points allowed to the position (34.50) and in rushing yards (164.5) per game. They’re also 28th in receiving yards allowed (45.5) and have surrendered 5 rushing TDs (31st).
Pittsburgh’s allowed 8 different RBs to score double-digit points since Week 8 and are coming off a week where they let D’Onta Foreman go for 135 total yards on 25 opportunities.
Given the usage we could see from CEH and the Steelers’ inability to stop RBs, he carries high-end RB2 upside in Week 16. I would not be shocked if he comes out and has his best game of the season and comes close to 100 total yards, catches 3-4 passes, and finds the end zone.
Williams is even a viable play as a lower-end RB3 this week. Even with his drop in usage, he should still see double-digit touches, and I see him getting back some of his receiving work due to the current situation the offense currently finds itself in for Week 16. On the season, he has 38 receptions for 373 yards and 2 touchdowns.
We know the skills are there, as we saw it in Week 10 against Las Vegas when he hauled in all 9 targets for 101 yards and a TD. He does not have the same upside as Edwards-Helaire as he is the No. 2 option, but there should be enough to be a viable fantasy option.