The Kansas City Chiefs never lack for fantasy football star-power, but this week there is a question about the status of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. After missing practice this week, what is Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s outlook for fantasy with the team’s Sunday Night Football kickoff quickly approaching?
Update December 06th: ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported that Chiefs’ RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is active tonight.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of practice again on Friday
The last thing you want to see is a player marked as having not-participated, especially late in the week. In 2020, you also don’t want to see an “illness” marked as the reason for their absence. A single word almost having the same visceral reaction to saying Voldermort in Harry Potter.
Related | RB Injury Report Week 13: Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook highlight Sunday’s injuries
Luckily enough, it seems that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with nothing more than a stomach illness. However, the problem is somewhat magnified by the timing of the game. Anytime a player’s status is unknown, you want him playing in the early Sunday slate. Then, if he is absent, you have plenty of options to pivot to.
Head coach Andy Reid is optimistic about his status
According to Nate Taylor of The Athletic, Chiefs coach Andy Reid is optimistic about Edwards-Helaire’s availability for Sunday. “We think we’re going to get him back,” Reid said ahead of Sunday’s game.
“He’s got the same thing Breezy (Bashaud Breeland) had with the stomach deal. We think we’re going to get him back here, I don’t think that’s a problem. He’s feeling better today, but we held him out.”
In a report Sunday morning, Ian Rapoport stated that Edwards-Helaire is feeling better. The team is hopeful he will be active for Week 13.
The LSU rookie was out of Thursday and Friday practices and is questionable on the team’s injury report.
If Clyde Edwards-Helaire can not play or there is a possibility he will be limited, fellow RB Le’Veon Bell becomes a very interesting fantasy option.
The fantasy season for Clyde Edwards-Helaire can be split into two parts
After being selected as the first running back off the board with pick #32 by the defending Super Bowl Champions, the fantasy world lost its collective mind.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, one of the top pass-catching backs in the class, going to a high-powered offense with a history of producing solid fantasy production. This seems like a perfect storm for fantasy production.
However, through no fault of his own, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy value took a massive hit. Virtually splitting his rookie campaign into two segments.
The Pre-Le’Veon Bell Era
Coming out the gates in Week 1, in his first game as a professional, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was electric. Edwards-Helaire rushed 25 times for 138 yards (5.5 avg) and scored his first career touchdown. The only thing that was lacking was passing involvement, but we knew that could come in time. His 19.80 PPR points were enough for an RB11 finish in his first game.
In Week 2, we saw the passing game come into play. Edwards-Helaire caught six of his eight targets for 32 yards. He underwhelmed on the ground in that game, with just 38 rushing yards on 10 carries. However, close to 10 points from the receiving side in PPR formats boosted his total to a 13-point finish.
For the next four weeks, it was more of the same. Mostly efficient rushing, some passing work, but no touchdowns. Almost to a comical level to a degree. Despite leading the team in red-zone rushing attempts, he had failed to convert a single one for a touchdown.
All in all, from Week 1 through Week 6, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a very solid RB1 fantasy running back. During this stretch, he was the RB11, racking up 107 carries for 505 yards (4.7 avg) and one rushing touchdown. He also added 21 receptions on 31 targets for 177 yards. His usage was through the roof as well. Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 17.8 rushing attempts and 5.2 targets per game.
On a 16 game pace, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was on a trajectory for 1,350 rushing yards and 472 receiving yards.
The Post-Le’Veon Bell Era
After being released from the New York Jets purgatory, Le’Veon Bell hit the open market and was quickly scooped up by the Chiefs. A one-year deal to get one of the best running backs in the modern era made just too much sense, even if it was to the detriment of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
In the five games since the team acquired Bell (Week 7 through Week 12), Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the RB19. But it’s his stats that paint a better picture of the effect Bell had on the offense.
Since Week 7, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 44 rushing attempts for 187 yards and three touchdowns while adding nine receptions on 15 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown.
His attempts per game have dropped by half, from 17.8 to 8.8, and his receptions are down to only 1.8 per game.
After averaging 113 all-purpose yards per game, that number has fallen to 48.8 yards per game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire did not see a game with less than 10 rushing attempts or 18 total opportunities in his first six games. Since Week 7, he has had three out of five games with less than eight rushing attempts and has yet to see over 16 total opportunities in a game.
Bell is not winning the job, but Edwards-Helaire is seeing a reduction in opportunities and snaps
It’s not that Bell has been phenomenal and taken the job. He has seen 28 rushes for 101 yards (3.61 avg) with one touchdown and caught all seven targets for 47 yards.
Anytime you have a split in carries, production drops across the board for fantasy, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire managers are seeing that happen. Not just in fantasy points, but also his total snap count has dropped. Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 61.3% of the offensive snaps in the first six games while never dropping below 60%. Since then, he has averaged 50.3% of the snaps and has yet to see a game north of 59%.
As I said earlier and we see in the production, none of it is Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fault. He came in, did his job, and did it very well. The only flaw in his game is pass blocking, but we have known that since his time at LSU, although it is improving. Even on the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, a committee split is not conducive for fantasy production.
If Clyde Edwards-Helaire plays, he is a solid RB2 in Week 13 for fantasy
I know I have spent a lot of this time discussing the fantasy downside of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and saying that he has lost value. Which is true, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t starting him anymore.
Between Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Le’Veon Bell, either running back will have a solid matchup against the Broncos. While they give up the 18th-most fantasy points to the running back position (23.77), there is a bit more to it than that.
From Week 1 through Week 6, the Denver Broncos only gave up one touchdown on the ground while averaging 63.5 rushing yards to the other team. However, since Week 7, the Broncos have given up eight rushing touchdowns and allowed an average of 130 rushing yards against them.
This is also not including the two rushing touchdowns by Taysom Hill last week. So what changed?
In Week 7 against these same Chiefs, the Broncos lost IDL Mike Purcell, the primary run stuffer. They are a defense that can be attacked on the ground. With all the weapons that Patrick Mahomes has at his disposal, it’s hard to see how they can focus on stopping the run.
If Clyde Edwards-Helaire plays, he is an RB2 with upside, and Bell is a high-end RB4 for fantasy. If Edwards-Helaire doesn’t suit up due to his illness, fire Bell up as an RB2 this week in his place.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.