The Cleveland Browns came away with a victory in Jameis Winston’s first-ever snow game. Despite a 3-8 record, Winston manages to keep this team in good spirits and out of the No.-1-overall-pick discussion.
The Denver Broncos’ offense is difficult to get a read on. Going against the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs, they put up 10 and 14 points but then proceeded to score 38 and 29 against the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders, respectively. If they can score more consistently, the sky is the limit for a team that employs a top-flight defense and offensive line.
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Broncos -6 - Moneyline
Broncos (-250); Browns (+205) - Over/Under
42 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Empower Field at Mile High
Browns vs. Broncos Preview and Prediction
The Broncos have built their defensive success around disruption and aggression. According to Tru Media, the Broncos are ranked first in defensive EPA per play and third in success rate. On top of boasting the third-highest pressure rate in the league, they also blitz more than any other defense.
With the fourth-strongest pass-funnel defense, the Broncos’ defense consistently forces opposing offenses into pass situations in which they do an average job of limiting explosives, ranking 14th in passes of 20 or more yards given up. They do excel at limiting explosive plays in the rushing game, ranking sixth in runs of 10 or more yards given up.
This lends itself well to a matchup with a Browns team that ranks 30th in generating explosive passing plays and 20th in generating explosive rushing plays. This is actually decent compared to the rest of Cleveland’s performance on offense. They rank dead last in EPA per game and success rate, a reflection of their inability to sustain drives, create big plays, and bench Deshaun Watson long before his season-ending Achilles injury.
In the small sample size with Winston under center (four games), they still perform below average but are optimistically effective in some areas. Under pressure, the Winston-led Browns rank 22nd in EPA but are third in EPA when blitzed. This could prove to be helpful, considering the Broncos also rank 16th in defensive EPA when blitzing.
On defense, the Browns are a mixed bag because of having to constantly play behind. The Browns have the second-highest percentage of plays in a negative game-script situation this season (win probability below 30%). While they rank 15th in defensive EPA per play, they rank ninth in EPA with a lead. Even in standard situations, the Browns’ defense has the ability to limit opposing offenses on a play-by-play basis, ranking fifth in success rate.
Their Achilles’ heel has been explosive plays. Cleveland ranks 30th and 27th in explosive passing and rushing allowed (defined as passes of 20 or more yards and rushes of 10 or more yards), respectively. Unfortunately for the Browns, Denver’s offense ranks fifth in passing explosives, which could lead to even more situations where Cleveland is playing from behind.
The Broncos as a whole rank 20th in offensive success rate and 23rd in offensive EPA per game. The most impressive portion of this offense has been their success on the offensive line. PFF has Denver’s offensive line second in the league in pass-blocking grade. Even better, they rank sixth in pressure per dropback allowed despite ranking fifth in time to throw.
This offensive line has done a flawless job of keeping rookie Bo Nix upright and allowing him to make plays on the run and outside of the pocket. In fact, the Broncos rank 10th in scramble EPA, which is a testament to Nix’s willingness to be an effective part of the run game.
Surprisingly, the Broncos’ offense ranks 30th in EDP (earned drive points) on scripted plays and 20th in EDP on non-scripted plays. The Browns’ defense ranks first in pressure generated and employs Myles Garrett along the defensive line, which should definitely be a challenge for this stout offensive line. In the very little amount of time Nix has spent under pressure, the Broncos ranks 27th in EPA.
Cleveland’s ability to exploit blitzes in the pass game could potentially lead to the Browns taking an early lead. Pairing this with the fact that the Broncos struggle on scripted plays and the Browns’ defense is best with a lead, there is a clear path to victory for the Browns in this one.
My pick: Browns +205
