The Cleveland Browns have had one of the wildest seasons of any NFL team, but at 7-3, they entered Sunday of Week 12 as the fifth seed in the AFC. Despite losing QB Deshaun Watson for the season, the Browns remain in the AFC playoff race and could end up the No. 1 seed in the conference if things fall their way.
With the assistance of PFN’s Free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at the potential scenarios for the Browns when it comes to the AFC playoff picture.
What Are the Cleveland Browns’ Week 12 Playoff Scenarios?
Despite being the fifth seed, Cleveland’s playoff spot is extremely tenuous right now. The AFC is so tightly bunched that there were just three games between the first and 12th seeds entering Sunday’s games. That means over the next six weeks, we could see things change drastically and quickly.
For example, the Browns entered Sunday with the chance to leave as the No. 1 seed if things fell their way. They are only half a game behind the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins (both 8-3) and have the NFL playoff tiebreaker advantage over both.
The Browns and Ravens split their head-to-head meetings this season, but Cleveland would have the superior conference record if they win this week (6-2 vs. 5-3). That would move the Browns to the top of the AFC North, at least until Baltimore plays on Sunday Night Football. That would move them into the top four seeds and see them go up against the Dolphins and potentially the Jacksonville Jaguars in tiebreakers.
Cleveland looks set to have the advantage over both teams in strength of victory (SOV). They don’t have enough common games at this stage for that to be a tiebreaker, so it goes down to the SOV tiebreaker, and the Browns would move above both of them.
However, the Kansas City Chiefs could play spoilers to the Browns if they beat the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12. That would put the Chiefs at 8-3 with a 6-1 conference record that would give them the top seed and move Cleveland to No. 2 until SNF.
If the Browns lose, they will still end the week in the playoffs through 12 weeks. If the Texans and Steelers both also win, Houston could slide to the seventh seed, but with no team outside the current playoff spots having four or fewer losses this year, they cannot go lower than the seventh seed in Week 12.
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Beyond Week 12, it’s hard to project the Browns’ playoff path. There is so much that can change in the AFC that they could end up anywhere between the first and 10th seeds with just a couple of tight results going either way for them. Entering Sunday, the AFC North itself had all four teams within three games of each other.
The Browns will have their work cut out for them without their franchise QB. Nevertheless, Cleveland’s defense is playing well enough that they should give themselves chances late in plenty of games this season. But if they fail to convert a couple of those chances, they could be on the outside looking in come January.
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