The Cleveland Browns have had one of the most bizarre seasons in 2023, but despite four different starting quarterbacks, they remain in the thick of the AFC playoff picture entering Week 14. The Browns enter Sunday as the fifth seed in the AFC and have a chance to move within one game of the top of the division if things go their way.
With the AFC finely poised entering Week 14, let’s use the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor to examine some potential scenarios for the Browns this week and look further ahead.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Bengals (7-6) defeated Colts (7-6)
Jets (5-8) defeated Texans (7-6)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
Broncos (7-6) defeated Chargers (5-8)
Bills (7-6) defeated Chiefs (8-5)
What Are the Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in 2023?
Heading into the start of Sunday in Week 14, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) has the Browns with a 69.5% chance of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, the FPI also has the Browns with a 7.7% chance of winning the NFC North. However, with 13 teams sitting between five and nine wins in the AFC, things can change extremely quickly.
The first part of the Browns’ dream scenario for Week 14 played out on Thursday when the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the New England Patriots. That moved the Browns into the fifth seed and put them in pole position to challenge the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North.
The best-case scenario for the Browns the rest of the way would see them open up a one-game lead over the rest of the team, chasing a Wild Card spot and within one game of both the Ravens for the AFC North and the number one seed. That perfect scenario for the Browns would be:
- Browns defeat Jaguars
- Rams defeat Ravens
- Bengals defeat Colts
- Jets defeat Texans
- Bills defeat Chiefs
- Titans defeat Dolphins
In the scenario where those results play out as described, the Browns would still be the fifth seed, but they would be right in the middle of the battle for the number one seed in the AFC. You could argue that it does not massively hurt the Browns if the Colts and Chiefs win. Those two winning their games could open a gap between the Browns and two of the other Wild Card chasing teams — the Bills and Bengals.
MORE: Cleveland Browns Depth Chart
The AFC is shaping up like it could be a wild mix of NFL playoff tiebreakers. This week alone could see seven teams tied at 7-6 or three teams tied at 8-5, with two at 9-4, and five teams at 7-6. There are so many different scenarios that could play out in the coming weeks, and as many as 15 teams can make a case for having a shot at the postseason.
The worst-case scenario for the Browns this week is they lose, and other results go against them to a point where they slip to the ninth spot in the AFC standings. In doing so, they could be as far as three games back in the AFC North and the race for the number one seed in the AFC.
That worst-case scenario is as follows:
- Jaguars defeat Browns
- Ravens defeat Rams
- Colts defeat Bengals
- Texans defeat Jets
- Chiefs defeat Bills
- Dolphins defeat Titans
Again, you could make the case that it is a coin flip for the worst case, whether the Chiefs or Bills win or the Colts or Bengals win. Either of those scenarios has its pros and cons for the Browns in terms of putting them further down the standings or keeping more teams tightly in the mix.
How Can the Browns Win the AFC North?
The Browns’ path to the AFC North requires a two-game flip between them and the Ravens, with a couple of other things working out their way. The Ravens are currently two games ahead of Cleveland, and the pair split their head-to-head contest.
MORE: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings
Therefore, the Browns will hope that they can keep the division alive through Week 18. If Cleveland prevails over the Bengals and the Ravens lose, then the Browns would have a better divisional record (4-2 vs. 3-3). The Browns would only need one other game to flip in the overall standings to give them the division in that situation.
If the two teams end up tied on overall and divisional records, then common games would be the next tiebreaker. The Browns are currently 5-3 against common opponents, and the Ravens are 6-2, with both having four to play. That could easily end up tied, as could their conference records, which are 6-3 for the Ravens and 5-3 for the Browns.
We could yet see the AFC North decided by either strength of victory or strength of schedule. The Browns have a slight advantage in both of those right now, but things could easily change there over the next five weeks. The AFC North could easily come right down to the wire this season.
The Browns also have an outside chance of clinching the number one seed in the AFC. However, they would need to catch the Ravens, the Dolphins to drop at least two games, and the Chiefs to lose at least one more game for it to even come into consideration.
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