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    Cleveland Browns Betting Lines: Preview, Odds, Spreads, Win Total, and More

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    The Cleveland Browns caught lightning in a bottle with Joe Flacco's late-season run. Can Deshaun Watson get them back to the playoffs in a tough AFC North?

    The Cleveland Browns had a historically elite defense in 2023 and somehow got competent play from Joe Flacco during a crucial stretch of the season.

    The Browns are heading into 2024 in a “run it back” type year that features a handful of additions but the same core players, yet the team’s betting lines reflect an expectation of regression.

    Cleveland Browns Futures Odds:

    All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise

    Super Bowl Odds: +4000
    AFC Odds: +2200
    AFC North Odds: +600
    Win Total: 8.5 (Over -135/Under +115)
    To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +145/-175

    Cleveland Browns Offense

    Deshaun Watson is an anomaly. He was fantastic before his career-changing off-the-field issues, but ever since joining the Browns, he’s been disastrously bad. Watson can’t stay healthy, and when he’s been on the field, he hasn’t been that good.

    Per Tru Media, Watson ranked 39th out of 48 quarterbacks with over 100 attempts in expected points added (EPA) per dropback last season. When upping the threshold to over 200 attempts, Flacco ranked 27th out of 35. While neither were good, Flacco was 0.09 EPA per dropback better and a little over $40 million cheaper.

    With that being said, the NFL’s 28th-ranked offense enabled the Browns to go 11-6 and make the playoffs before the wheels fell off. However, the Browns were 24th in rushing EPA in large part due to Nick Chubb’s devasting Week 2 knee injury.

    In 2022, a fully healthy Chubb helped lead the Browns to a No. 6 rank in rushing EPA. While we don’t know if he will come back the same post-injury, it’s worth noting Chubb was already back to squatting an absurd amount of weight in a video a couple months ago.

    MORE: NFL Super Bowl Odds

    Two key offseason additions to the offense are wideout Jerry Jeudy, who was acquired via trade from the Denver Broncos, and former Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. I am one of Dorsey’s most ardent defenders, because I don’t think he was at fault for the Bills’ offensive struggles last season.

    With Dorsey at the helm last season, the Bills had six games of two or more turnovers. However, following his departure, they reached that dubious mark in just two more instances over the final nine-game stretch of the regular season. The Bills were also ranked eighth in offensive EPA during Dorsey’s 2023 tenure.

    Therefore, his return to the team he once quarterbacked might ultimately prove to be one of the most underrated additions of the offseason.

    Cleveland Browns Defense

    The Browns’ defense in 2023 wasn’t just good — by many metrics, it was an all-time great unit. Since 2000, the Browns defense ranks 12th in defensive EPA per game. What’s arguably even more impressive is that they ranked 388th out of 766 teams over that span in turnover EPA, meaning they’ve been highly effective without forcing turnovers at a particularly high rate.

    According to Sumer Sports, net turnover EPA has a correlation coefficient of just 0.043, highlighting how unpredictable turnovers are from year to year.

    KEEP READING: NFL Offensive Player of the Year

    In other words, the Browns’ struggle to force turnovers in 2023 doesn’t mean they won’t excel in this area in 2024. Crucially, there’s a correlation of 0.243 between turnover EPA and total defensive EPA.

    This suggests that the Browns’ defense has significant room for improvement if they can generate more turnovers—a realistic (maybe even likely) possibility.

    One Betting Trend To Know

    Despite the Browns’ lack of ability to force turnovers, their games hit the Over at a clip of 62.5% in 2023, third in the NFL.

    Best Bet for Browns in 2024

    My best bets for the Browns is for them to make the playoffs (+145) and win the AFC North (+600). A season ago, the Browns’ offense was largely inept and the defense didn’t force many turnovers, but they still won 11 games. The Ravens are due for regression this season, the Bengals have holes on defense, and I like the Browns team as a whole more than the Steelers.

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