It took all of one season for Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud to make a strong case he’s a top-five NFL quarterback. But does that automatically make him a top-five QB in fantasy football? What does Stroud’s 2024 projection say?
C.J. Stroud’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 21.2
- Passing Yards: 5,166
- Passing TDs: 28.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Stroud This Year?
Every way you look at it, Stroud’s rookie season was incredible. He threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns in 15 starts, taking the Texans from a projected last-place team to the playoffs and even winning a postseason game.
While Stroud projects to be a prolific passer once again, the PFN consensus projection is a good example of why Stroud may not be a great fantasy option, given his lofty QB6 price tag.
Imagine if Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards. For the latter, we don’t have to imagine it — we saw it. These guys would be well over 25 fantasy points per game if they did. Stroud is barely getting to 22 PPG with 5,365 projected passing yards. It’s very difficult for non-mobile QBs to be elite in the modern NFL.
He can tactically scramble, but he averaged just 11.1 rushing yards per game last season. It took him leading the NFL in passing yards and interception rate to get to a mid-QB1 finish.
For him to even remotely challenge guys like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, let alone Josh Allen, Stroud would need to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. Can he do it? Absolutely. Should we project it? Absolutely not.
In the modern NFL, it’s very difficult for a quarterback to be truly elite in fantasy without significant rushing upside. It took Dak Prescott 36 passing touchdowns to get to 20.7 fantasy points per game. By contrast, Hurts and Jackson threw for 23 and 24 scores, respectively. That’s what rushing can do.
I have Stroud projected for 4,671 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 11.4 interceptions. He still winds up at 20.16 fantasy points per game. Anything over 20 is really impressive for a traditional pocket passer.
While Stroud does project out as my QB6, and I have him ranked as my QB7, he’s still not the type of quarterback I think fantasy managers should target.
Stroud is much closer to the QB9 in my projections than he is to the QB4. His most likely range of outcomes is somewhere in the QB10-6 range. Essentially, he’s being drafted close to his ceiling.
I have no doubts that Stroud has the talent and offensive weapons to post a 5,000-yard 50-touchdown season. If he does so, he will smash his ADP and will have been worth drafting no matter where you take him. But we, as fantasy managers, can’t be spending premium picks hoping for once-in-a-generation outcomes.
Stroud is a phenomenal quarterback. The Texans are making the playoffs this year. They’re probably winning the division and are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But in fantasy, managers are better off taking less expensive quarterbacks who are not as good as Stroud, but that have the cheat code that is above-average rushing ability.