The Houston Texans will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB C.J. Stroud.
Is C.J. Stroud Playing vs. the Chiefs?
Stroud was not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any unexpected setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Texans’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit C.J. Stroud in the Divisional Round?
Stroud is off to a promising start to his career, and that’s great. During the 2024 Wild Card Round, he became the sixth QB to win a playoff game in each of his first two seasons. I’m intrigued by what he can do with this franchise. Houston made it clear that they want their fate tied to their franchise signal caller and, in theory, that’s all we can ask for:
Texans’ highest first-half dropback rates, 2024:
- Saturday vs. Chargers: 78.8%
- Week 16 at Chiefs: 77.1%
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 73.9%
- Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 73.9%
- Week 17 vs. Ravens: 71%
My concern is the regression in stretching the field and how that projects in this specific spot. Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) a season ago and 122 this season. The attempt count was similar, but the success rate was very different.
- 2023: Nine touchdowns and zero interceptions
- 2024: Five touchdowns and seven interceptions
He wasn’t much better last week (3-of-6 on these passes with an interception), and if he can’t connect on the home-run balls, he’s likely to finish this weekend as the lowest-scoring player at the position.
Chiefs vs. deep passes, 2024:
- Yards per pass: 11.8 (23rd)
- Yards per completion: 29.2 (27th)
Otherwise:
- Yards per pass: 5.8 (fifth)
- Yards per completion: 8.0 (third)
Teams have been unable to win underneath against Kansas City, and Stroud has been unable to consistently produce vertically. Could you spin that in a positive light? You certainly could.
“Stroud has Nico Collins and the Chiefs are vulnerable down the field”
Easy.
You could tell that story, but I’m trusting the 19 weeks of data that suggest that this Houston offense isn’t going to produce splash plays in bulk. If you see it differently, you stand to put yourself in a very good late-swap position. This is the first game of the week, and that means that if you nail this call (and potentially even in a stack), you essentially have a head start on the majority of the field.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
C.J. Stroud’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, Stroud is projected to score 14.2 fantasy points in the Divisional Round. This includes 210.3 passing yards, 1.1 passing touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions. It also includes 2.5 rushing attempts for 11.1 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
C.J. Stroud’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (at KC)
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at PHI)
4) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. BUF)
