Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud has already established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Following one of the greatest rookie QB seasons of all time, can Stroud ascend to even greater heights in 2024? Should fantasy football managers target him in Best Ball drafts?
C.J. Stroud’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
To say Stroud’s rookie season was impressive would be a massive understatement. And it’s not as if he walked into an ideal situation. The Texans were widely expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Almost exclusively because of Stroud, they not only made the playoffs but also won a playoff game.
In 15 games, Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB7.
C.J. Stroud ➡️ Tank Dell is 💰
The #Texans rookie duo is SPECIAL!#WeAreTexans | #NFL pic.twitter.com/kkM8kQfuiD
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 19, 2023
We think of Nico Collins and Tank Dell as strong fantasy options now, but it’s fair to say neither would have much buzz if not for Stroud. The Texans did not baby Stroud at all in his debut season. His 9.0 intended air yards per attempt ranked second in the league, and his 8.2 yards per attempt was good for third.
Stroud is already one of the best deep-ball passers in the league, completing nearly 50% of downfield throws. I have zero concerns about his talent. He’s going to be one of the best QBs in the NFL for the next decade plus. However, I do have concerns about his fantasy upside.
Stroud is not a mobile quarterback. He can tactically scramble, but he averaged just 11.1 rushing yards per game last season. It took him leading the NFL in passing yards and interception rate to get to a mid-QB1 finish.
For him to even remotely challenge guys like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, let alone Josh Allen, Stroud would need to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. Can he do it? Absolutely. Should we project it? Absolutely not.
In the modern NFL, it’s very difficult for a quarterback to be truly elite in fantasy without significant rushing upside. It took Dak Prescott 36 passing touchdowns to get to 20.7 fantasy points per game. By contrast, Hurts and Jackson threw for 23 and 24 scores, respectively. That’s what rushing can do.
Should You Draft Stroud in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
As much as I love Stroud, he probably shouldn’t be elevated to overall QB6. Why exactly should we draft him ahead of Joe Burrow? Are we sure Stroud is a better option than Prescott, Jordan Love, or Kyler Murray?
To be clear, Stroud could very well end up better than all of these guys. But you have to pay much more to find out. They’re much closer in value than their ADPs would suggest. As a result, Stroud is likely someone I’m passing on in 2024 Best Ball drafts, purely based on relative cost.
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