Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Scenarios: Week 17 Scoreboard Watching, Rooting Guide

The 34-11 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday did not eliminate the Cincinnati Bengals from playoff contention, but it did kill their chances of securing the AFC fifth seed.

However, not only are the sixth and seventh seeds possibilities, but the Bengals are almost guaranteed of getting one of them if they can win their next two games — at Kansas City against the Chiefs on Sunday and home against the Cleveland Browns on Jan. 5 — to finish 10-7.

Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update

Note that this article was originally published on Tuesday, Dec. 26. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.

As of Thursday Night Football, the Ravens remain atop the AFC North with a 12-3 record. However, the Browns are not far behind after defeating the Jets 37-20. With the victory, Cleveland has clinched a playoff spot and now holds an 11-5 record.

Thursday Night Football Update
Browns (11-5) defeated Jets (6-10)

Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.

Possible Paths to the Playoffs for the Cincinnati Bengals

While things weren’t great in Pittsburgh on Saturday, most of the games with AFC playoff implications went the Bengals’ way on Sunday, which is why the New York Times playoff predictor gives Cincinnati a 94% chance of making the playoffs if they beat the Chiefs and Browns.

If the Bengals lose at Kansas City, their chances crater to 7%.

If they beat the Chiefs but lose to the Browns, their chances would be 21%. Not great, but better than expected at 9-8.

Those odds, of course, are irrespective of the other outcomes across the league. The Bengals do not control their fate, so scoreboard-watching will play an important role in charting any path to the playoffs.

There are 10 games at 1 p.m. on Sunday, and four of them have postseason ramifications for the Bengals, so we’ll have a better idea of where things stand by kickoff in Kansas City at 4:25 p.m.

The two other games in the 4 o’clock window have playoff implications as well.

All told, there are eight games in Week 17, including Bengals-Chiefs, which will impact Cincinnati’s playoff chances. Here they are, ranked in order of importance:

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) at Seattle Seahawks (8-7)

This one is obvious. The Bengals can’t win a tiebreaker against the Steelers, so a Seattle win would be helpful to give Cincinnati control of its fate again, in terms of where it stands against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers could always lose at Baltimore in Week 18, but the Ravens could have the top AFC seed wrapped up by then, allowing them to rest their starters, so a Pittsburgh loss Sunday would be huge for the Bengals.

Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) at Denver Broncos (7-8)

This one became less important when the Denver Broncos lost at home to the New England Patriots on Sunday, but a Chargers win still would be big for Cincinnati.

The worst thing that can happen for the Bengals would be Denver matching their record. It would render moot any head-to-head edge the Bengals have on teams, such as the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Buffalo Bills.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

Head-to-head in a multi-team tiebreaker only applies if one team has beaten all the others or lost to all the others. The Bengals and Broncos don’t play in 2023, so it would move on to conference record, and Cincinnati is a dismal 3-7.

The best chance for the Bengals is to win out and finish 10-7, which would keep Denver from being a factor. Still, Cincinnati would have a chance at 9-8, which would evaporate if the Broncos were 9-8, as well.

New York Jets (6-9) at Cleveland Browns (10-5)

On the surface, this Thursday night game doesn’t look like it matters since the Jets are out of contention and the Bengals are incapable of catching the Browns. Still, a Cleveland win on Thursday, and a Ravens win on Sunday, would lock the Browns into the fifth seed, meaning they would not have anything on the line in Week 18 against the Bengals, opening the possibility of Cleveland resting its starters.

As hard as it might be, the Bengals and their fans should pull for the Browns.

Tennessee Titans (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7)

The AFC South is a jumbled mess; there are pros and cons to every result for Cincinnati. The best-case scenario is for the Houston Texans, who have a win against the Bengals, to win the division, leaving the Jaguars and Colts, both of whom Cincinnati has beaten, to duke it out for a wildcard spot.

A Houston loss here wouldn’t be all bad, but a Tennessee upset seems unlikely, so the pick here is to pull for the Texans.

New England Patriots (4-11) at Buffalo Bills (9-6)

The Bengals would benefit from the Bills losing one of their remaining two games, so they might as well have it happen this week rather than waiting until the Week 18 game against the Miami Dolphins when the Bills could be playing for a division title — not just for a Wild Card spot — which would eliminate another Wild Card spot for the Bengals because they can’t catch the Dolphins, who already have 11 wins.

Carolina Panthers (2-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)

If the goal is for the Texans to win the AFC South, any Jacksonville loss is good.

The trouble is the Jaguars’ two remaining opponents are the Carolina Panthers, who have the worst record in the league, and the 5-10 Titans. If Jacksonville wins Sunday, Bengals fans can still root against the Jaguars next week, but it would be better not to have Week 18 matter.

Miami Dolphins (11-4) at Baltimore Ravens (12-3)

This is an “either-or” game for the Bengals. If the Ravens win, they clinch the division and could lock Cleveland into the fifth seed, opening the possibility of the Browns resting their starters in Week 18 at Cincinnati.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Observations From a Humiliating Night in Pittsburgh

If the Dolphins win, that eliminates a scenario where the Bills win the AFC East, and the Dolphins, whom the Bengals cannot catch, grab the sixth seed, leaving only the seventh seed available.

The Week 18 Bills-Dolphins game is in Miami, so that’s enough to push the preference to Baltimore in this one.

Indianapolis Colts (8-7) at Atlanta Falcons (7-8)

It doesn’t matter if the Indianapolis Colts finish tied with the Bengals because of Cincinnati’s Week 13 win. It still would be helpful to have Indianapolis because of the desired result of having Houston win the division.

Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!