Are the Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Hopes Over if They Lose at Arizona?

After falling one win shy of earning a trip to Arizona last season, the Cincinnati Bengals will fly to the desert this weekend with much less fanfare.

A win against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5 obviously wouldn’t make the return flight to Cincinnati as satisfying as coming home from a Super Bowl triumph.

But a loss on Sunday could feel every bit as devastating as one in February. Because if the Bengals start 1-4, all hope should turn to next year.

Do the Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Hopes Hinge on a Victory in Arizona?

Yes, there would still be plenty of football left to be played, and the players and coaches will remind everyone of that every chance they get. Five games out of 17 is only 29 percent of the season.

But this won’t be about math (although that isn’t on their side either).

The latest episode of the PFN Bengals Podcast is posted.

– What was the most troubling thing we saw in Tennessee?

– What changes should be made?

– Can they save their season in Arizona?

– Are @DallasDRobinson and I dumb enough to predict another win?https://t.co/EtQSuGDoh3

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) October 3, 2023

Going 1-4 through what was supposed to be the easiest part of the schedule would be an insurmountable faceplant.

Joe Burrow’s calf will heal, but not overnight. And if the hamstrung offense can’t beat the Tennessee Titans and Cardinals, what realistic hope will there be against the Seattle Seahawks (3-1), San Francisco 49ers (4-0), Buffalo Bills (3-1), surprising Houston Texans (2-2), and Baltimore Ravens (3-1)?

The Bengals know the must-win quotient will be through the State Farm Stadium roof this weekend.

If they can’t rally and muster enough gumption to beat Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals, how can anyone believe they’ll ever turn things around to even sniff .500, let alone the playoffs, over the rest of the season?

There is a real possibility the Bengals could be 4.5 games behind the Ravens by the time they fly to San Francisco to face the league’s fifth-ranked defense.

Let’s forget that the Bengals haven’t scored a first-half offensive touchdown in four games or that they’re ranked 32nd in yards per game, 32nd in points per drive, 32nd in passing yards per attempt, 31st in rushing yards per game, and 30th in first downs.

Let’s forget that Burrow is compromised and incapable of getting himself out of trouble when the offensive line is incapable of preventing it from arriving.

Measures of pass protection from two sources

After 4 weeks the measures are finally reasonably correlated, although there are still the Steelers as an outlier pic.twitter.com/xnp2fJFubx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 3, 2023

Let’s forget that one of Burrow’s top targets, Tee Higgins, could miss time as well after fracturing a rib Sunday.

Let’s forget all of the metadata and just look at it from a historical perspective.

Since the current divisional alignment went into place in 2002, 122 teams have started 1-4. Nine have made the playoffs. That’s eight percent.

Want to put that in tangible terms? Buy a 12-pack of beer, shake up one of the cans, line up all 12, and call a friend into the room to see if they can pick the right one.

The most recent team to overcome a 1-4 start and make the playoffs was the 2020 Washington Football Team, and that was only because it won a horrible division with a 7-9 record.

Prior to that, it was the 2018 Indianapolis Colts, who had three future head coaches working under Frank Reich.

Of those nine teams who rallied from 1-4 to make the playoffs, only one had multiple losses by more than 20 points as part of their slow start. The 2002 Jets lost their four games by 37, 27, 25, and four points (23.25 average).

The next highest average margin of defeat on the list is the 2020 WFT at 15.8.

The Bengals have lost their three games this year by an average of 18 points.

MORE: Who Was To Blame for the Bengals’ Biggest Defensive Issues in Tennessee?

From a math standpoint, it would seem easier to overcome a 1-4 start and make the playoffs once the league expanded the regular season to 17 games and the playoffs to seven teams per conference. But since that change ahead of the 2021 season, 10 teams have started 1-4, and none of them have made the playoffs. Their average final win total was 6.9.

That’s how steep of a climb the Bengals would be facing after a loss at Arizona.

“Must win” is not hyperbole.