The Cincinnati Bengals have already clinched a playoff berth, but the NFL’s decision to alter the AFC playoff structure will have significant impacts on Cincinnati’s postseason route. Let’s break down the various playoff scenarios the Bengals will face in Week 18 and beyond.
Update: Bengals Win but Bills Victory Keeps Them as #3 Seed
The Bengals defeated the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. However, victory for the Buffalo Bills kept the Bengals pinned to the third seed. They will now host the Ravens next week at home in the Wild Card Weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Scenarios to Watch for in Week 18
Heading into Week 17, the Bengals still had a shot at earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC. If they had defeated the Buffalo Bills on Monday night and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18, and the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18, Cincinnati would have earned a first-round bye and home-field advantage.
Everything changed when Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest in the first quarter of Monday’s contest. Thankfully, Hamlin is awake, and his condition is improving. The second-year defensive back even spoke to his teammates via video call on Friday.
The NFL opted to cancel the Bills-Bengals game, which means Buffalo and Cincinnati will finish the season having played only 16 games. The resolution approved Friday by the league’s 32 owners attempted to craft an AFC playoff structure that would be fair to all parties involved.
The Bengals are now looking at four potential scenarios in the first round of the NFL playoffs:
(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Cincinnati Bengals OR (3) Cincinnati Bengals at (6) Baltimore Ravens
For the Bengals, the decision to cancel the Monday night game means Cincinnati has already clinched the AFC North. Even if the Ravens move to 11-6 by defeating the Bengals on Sunday, Cincinnati will be 11-5 and have a better winning percentage than Baltimore.
However, the Ravens could have won the AFC North had the Bengals lost their final two games of the season. Therefore, if Baltimore wins on Sunday and is then scheduled to play Cincinnati in the Wild Card Round, the location of that playoff game will be decided by a coin flip.
If the Bengals defeat the Ravens on Sunday, that scenario will be moot. Cincinnati will have unquestionably won the division and will host a home playoff game.
(6) Los Angeles Chargers at (3) Cincinnati Bengals
If the Bengals lose to the Ravens and the Chargers lose to the Broncos, Cincinnati will host Los Angeles in the first round of the playoffs.
MORE: AFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Scenarios
Chargers head coach Brandon Staley has hinted he’ll rest his starters if L.A. has nothing to play for. The Bolts don’t play until the late afternoon slate on Sunday, so they will already know the Ravens-Bengals result by the time they suit up.
(7) New England Patriots at (2) Cincinnati Bengals
While the scenarios above include the Bengals as the No. 3 seed, there’s still a chance Cincinnati can grab the No. 2 seed. If the Bengals beat the Ravens and the Bills lose to the New England Patriots, Cincinnati would earn the second seed in the AFC.
In that case, New England will have snuck into the playoffs as the seventh seed and will travel to play the Bengals. If the Bills beat the Patriots, Cincinnati won’t have an opportunity to rise above the No. 3 seed.
Bengals Playoff Scenarios Outlined
In summary, here’s what the first round of the playoffs will look like for Cincinnati in each potential scenario:
- Bengals win + Chargers win + Bills win = BAL vs. CIN (no coin flip for location)
- Bengals win + Chargers lose + Bills win = BAL vs. CIN (no coin flip)
- Bengals win + Chargers lose + Bills lose = NE vs. CIN (no coin flip)
- Bengals lose + Chargers win = BAL vs. CIN (coin flip)
- Bengals lose + Chargers lose = LAC vs. CIN (no coin flip)