Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions: 5 Crucial Stats, Plus Players To Watch

Life without Joe Burrow begins Sunday when the Cincinnati Bengals face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first of seven games without their franchise quarterback.

Backup Jake Browning will try to become just the sixth quarterback in Bengals history to win his NFL starting debut, and he’ll have to do it without one of the top offensive weapons — wide receiver Tee Higgins will miss his third consecutive game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

The Bengals have won four of their last five against the Steelers, which is their most successful stretch against their division rivals since winning six in a row from 1998-2000.

A victory Sunday would give head coach Zac Taylor a 5-4 record against Pittsburgh while also keeping alive his team’s dwindling postseason hopes.

If the #Bengals can win Sunday, Zac Taylor will become the fourth coach in team history to have a winning record against the Steelers. pic.twitter.com/WKTT2VsBl2

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) November 21, 2023

5 Bengals-Steelers Stats From Inside Edge

• The Bengals have scored on 66.7% of their drives in the first quarter since Week 8 — best in the league.
• The Pittsburgh defense has allowed scores on 55.6% of opponent drives in the first quarter in that span — worst in the league.

Analysis: Points are expected to be at a premium on Sunday, so getting some early will be especially important. Adding to the urgency is the fact that the Steelers are 4-0 this season when scoring first and have won 13 in a row when getting the opening points dating back to 2021.

The Bengals are 3-1 this year when leading the first quarter and 22-10 during the Zac Taylor era. Enabling Browning to play with a lead in his first NFL start obviously will increase the team’s chances of snapping its two-game losing streak.

• Steelers running backs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 14.4% of their 208 carries this season — second-best in the NFL.
• The Bengals have allowed 10+ yards on 12.9% of carries by opposing running backs — third-worst in the league.

Analysis: Whether you go by percentage of explosive runs or the total amount allowed, the Bengals are bottom-feeders this year. The return of Sam Hubbard will be a huge help, especially on plays the Steelers run to the other side. So many of the explosive runs Lou Anarumo’s defense has allowed this season have come on cutbacks, and Hubbard isn’t a player the Bengals have to worry about losing backside contain.

Last week against the Browns, the top defense in the league, the Steelers still managed five rushes of 10+ yards, their third-highest total of the season.

Pittsburgh’s passing game has struggled all season, so keeping the run game in check should be a huge focus for the Bengals.

• The Bengals are 4-0 when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — best in the league.
• The Steelers have allowed an average time of possession of 34 minutes and 14 seconds — worst in the league.

Analysis: While Cincinnati’s success rate has been high when leading in time of possession, the occurrences of it are down. The Bengals did it 21 times in 2021-22, but just four times so far in 2023. Those four games were the victories against the Rams, Cardinals, Bills and 49ers.

A big reason the Steelers have been so bad at possessing the ball is that they struggled to keep drives alive with one of the worst offenses in the league. In the only two games where they’ve led time of possession, they’ve barely done so, outpacing the Raiders in Week 3 by six seconds and the Packers in Week 10 by 66 seconds.

Pittsburgh’s strong running game and the Bengals’ inability to stop the run could flip the script on Sunday. If the Bengals are able to win time of possession again, it will mean they either did a good job of slowing down Harris and Warren, or they did a bad job of hanging onto the ball. One of the rare times they lost a game in which they had an edge in time of possession was the 2022 opener when they committed five turnovers against Pittsburgh.

• The Steelers have a third-down conversion rate of 46.3% in the fourth quarter this year — tied for third-best in the league.
• The Cincinnati defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 52.8% in the fourth quarter this season — worst in the league.

Analysis: The Bengals have struggled to get off the field on third no matter what quarter it is. Opponents are converting 43.8% of third downs this season, ranking Cincinnati’s defense 28th in the league. The fourth-quarter rate of 52.8% is especially troubling. Since Week 8, the Bengals are allowing 8.0 points per fourth quarter, which ranks 30th.

With rookie Jordan Battle expected to make his first start at safety and starting cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt ruled out with a quad injury, third-down defense is going to be a major factor in determining which team wins.

• Games involving the Steelers have gone Under in all six of their contests against bottom-10 pass defenses.

Analysis: This says it all when it comes to summing up how bad the Pittsburgh offense has been. Even when facing some of the worst pass defenses in the league, the Steelers still struggle to put up points.

The Bengals rank 27th in pass defense and will be without Taylor-Britt.

Maybe the Pittsburgh offense finds a spark after firing coordinator Matt Canada. Or maybe the infusion of rookie Battle and the return of Hubbard give the Bengals a jolt on defense.

MORE: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings

The Over/Under is only 35.5. That’s the lowest number for a Bengals game since the 2009 season finale, when they were resting all of their starters, and the line was 33.5. Prior to that, the last time it was lower than 35.5 was Week 16 of the 2008 season, when it was 31.5 at Cleveland. The Bengals won that game 14-0, and one of the touchdowns was a pick-six by Leon Hall.

Despite the low 35.5 number, this one feels destined to go Under.

Bengals vs. Steelers Predictions

• Adam Beasley: Steelers
• David Bearman: Bengals
• Dalton Miller: Steelers
• Dallas Robinson: Bengals
• Jay Morrison: Bengals

Be sure to check out all of PFN’s Week 12 predictions.

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!