Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings Predictions: 5 Crucial Stats, Plus Players To Watch

he Cincinnati Bengals will be looking for a third consecutive victory and another a big step toward a possible playoff berth when they take on the Minnesota Vikings today at Paycor Stadium.

Both teams are 7-6 and fighting to make the postseason. The Bengals currently sit 10th in the AFC standings, but they could vault to sixth by the end of the day, and nothing that happens Sunday would change that.

The Vikings currently are the No. 6 playoff seed in the NFC despite losing two of their last three.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview

ESPN’s NFL Power Index currently lists the Bengals with a 24% chance of making the playoffs while giving the Vikings a 62.3% likelihood in the far less competitive NFC.

Sumer Sports have the Bengals with an 18% chance, with only an increase to 24% if they can beat the Vikings. A loss would drop Cincinnati all the way to 9.8%.

Meanwhile, Sumer Sports lists Minnesota with a 62% chance and an opportunity to bump that to 72.3% with another win on the road, where the Vikings have won four of their last five.

*a lot* of playoff leverage on the line in week 15 as discussed in the weekend previewhttps://t.co/9ztpRbkK8t pic.twitter.com/miSHz3n8nK

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) December 15, 2023

In addition to their identical records, the Bengals and Vikings have another element in common: both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. Jake Browning will lead the Bengals for a fourth consecutive game and has a chance to continue what has been one of the best statistical starts to any quarterback’s career in NFL history.

The Vikings lost quarterback Kirk Cousins two months ago and after riding with Jaren Hall for a game, they traded for Joshua Dobbs. The former Arizona quarterback made an impressive start, but his last two performances have been disasters in a 12-10 loss to Chicago and a 3-0 win against Las Vegas.

Enter Nick Mullens as the fourth starting quarterback of the season for Minnesota. The Vikings signed Mullens back in March, but he spent a good chunk of the season on injured reserve with a back injury.

Mullens has made 17 career starts, 16 of which came before 2021.

The Bengals’ defense has a long history of being victimized by backup quarterbacks, but they beat Gardner Minshew II last week and Dobbs earlier this season.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

Browning has faced some of the league’s best defenses already in Baltimore (for a half), Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. But Minnesota employs a blitz-heavy scheme that is one of the most unique in the game.

This one figures to come down to how well Lou Anarumo’s defense can do against a Vikings offense that will be missing starting running back Alexander Mattison and right tackle Brian O’Neill.

Five Bengals-Vikings Stats From Inside Edge

• Vikings tight ends have averaged 10.8 targets per game this season — most in the NFL.
• The Bengals have allowed 6.8 receptions per game to tight ends this season — worst in the NFL.

Analysis: Any time it’s best versus worst, it’s notable, but this especially stands out with Minnesota turning to Mullens at quarterback.

Backup quarterbacks — or, in this case, third-string quarterbacks — tend to lean heavily on tight ends as safety valves for checkdowns, and T.J. Hockenson is as good of a security blanket as anyone could want.

He’s caught at least eight passes in each of the last three games, and he leads all tight ends with 89 catches and is second to Travis Kelce with 839 yards.

• Bengals wide receivers have 203 receptions in 13 games (15.6 per game) this season — tied for second-best in the league.
• The Vikings have allowed 14.3 receptions per game to wide receivers this season – tied for fourth-worst in the league.

Analysis: It’s no shock the Bengals lean so heavily on Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and the other receivers with arguably the best group in the league, but it is a little surprising to see Minnesota giving up so many catches to opposing wideouts.

The Vikings rank first in the league with the frequency in which they drop eight defenders in pass coverage, which typically leads to a lot of checkdowns to running backs and tight ends. Keenan Allen’s 18-catch game against Minnesota in Week 3 certainly helps inflate that average. And the fact that the Vikings blitz more than another team creates opportunities for big plays by quarterbacks adept at recognizing the pressure, something Browning has shown in his first three starts.

Given that Chase had one of his lowest output games as a pro last week with three catches for 29 yards, and Higgins and Boyd only had two catches each, look for Browning to try to get his best weapons involved early against a Minnesota defense susceptible to big games by receivers.

• The Bengals are 14-2 when passing for more than 250 yards since the start of 2022 — best in the NFL.
• The Vikings have allowed 244.3 passing yards per game since 2022 — third worst in the NFL.

Analysis: The Minnesota trend spans two defensive coordinators, but the point remains that the blitz-heavy Vikings can be prone to explosive plays.

The Bengals have topped 250 yards in each of Browning’s last two starts, throwing for 335 at Jacksonville and 274 last week vs. Indianapolis.

The two losses both came this year with Joe Burrow at the helm, with the Bengals racking up 314 passing yards in Week 10 against Houston and 282 in Week 2 against Baltimore. Regardless of offensive production, losses tend to stack when the defense is giving up 544 and 415 yards, respectively, in those games.

But the Bengals have played better of late, and the Vikings don’t seem to be a threat to hit 400 yards with Mullens at quarterback, so 250 passing yards Saturday could be the magic number to hit.

• Vikings running backs have averaged just 6.4 yards after the catch this season – fourth worst in the NFL.
• The Bengals have allowed just 6.9 yards after the catch per reception by running backs this season – fourth best in the league.

Analysis: Anyone who has watched this Cincinnati defense tackle this year is going to be surprised by this. But the biggest issue in that regard has come on runs rather than getting players on the ground after catching passes.

The Bengals are a top-10 team when it comes to tackling on pass plays, with a missed tackle percentage of just 7.4%. And since the bye week, they rank third (5.7%).

MORE: Which Cincinnati Bengals Players Have Reachable Incentives in Their Contracts?

The Vikings are fourth on the season with a missed tackle percentage of 6.6% on pass plays, which is something to watch if Cincinnati continues to try to lean into the screen game.

Minnesota’s low YAC average by running backs follows the team’s overall trend of not using the position in the passing game. Mattison — who is out this week with an ankle injury — only has 174 receiving yards on the season. The next most productive back is Ty Chandler with 90.

• The Vikings are undefeated against the spread on the road this season, going 5-0.

Analysis: Minnesota is 4-1 straight up in its last five road games, so it’s not a surprise they have a strong record ATS. The Vikings have been favored in two of those six road games, but they are 3-point underdogs against the Bengals.

The line opened at 4.5 but has continued to drop despite Minnesota’s injuries and the lack of any for the Bengals. That’s an indication a lot of money is coming in on the Vikings.

The Bengals are 3-3-1 ATS at home this year.

Bengals vs. Vikings Predictions

• Adam Beasley: Bengals
• David Bearman: Bengals
• Dalton Miller: Bengals
• Dallas Robinson: Bengals
• Jay Morrison: Bengals

Be sure to check out all of PFN’s Week 15 predictions.