Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans Predictions: 5 Crucial Stats, Plus Players To Watch

The Cincinnati Bengals head into Sunday’s game against the Houston Texans looking for a fifth consecutive victory and a little piece of history.

If Cincinnati wins, it would mark the 10th time in the 56-season history of the franchise that it posted a win streak of at least five games, and just the second time doing so in back-to-back seasons.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans Game Preview

Team founder and Pro Football Hall of Famer Paul Brown and quarterback Kenny Anderson directed the Bengals to a six-game streak in 1975 before winning five in a row in 1976.

Last year’s Bengals team set the franchise record with a 10-game run that led all the way to the AFC Championship game, and the timing and so many of the other circumstances surrounding this year’s streak have a similar feel.

The 10-game run last year featured four in a row without the services of wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, and he is listed as questionable for today’s game with fellow starter Tee Higgins already ruled out. But the Texans have eight players ruled out and three more listed as questionable for the battle featuring two former Ohio State quarterbacks in Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud.

Burrow is 3-0 against rookie quarterbacks. But the Bengals just 5-3 as favorites of at least 6.5 points in the Burrow era.

Five Bengals-Texans Stats From Inside Edge

• Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has completed just 36 percent of his passes when under pressure — 10th-worst among qualified quarterbacks.
• The Bengals have allowed a completion rate of just 23.3 when the opposing quarterback was under pressure – best in the NFL.

Analysis: The Bengals will be without one of the top pass rushers in Sam Hubbard, but as long as Trey Hendrickson is on the field, Stroud will feel pressure. It will be interesting to see who gets the bulk of Hubbard’s sacks, although indications are it will be Cam Sample, as he’s been the first to sub in for Hubbard whenever he needed a rest.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart

The other to watch is how often defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo blitzes the rookie. The Bengals rank 12th in blitz percentage (27%), which is higher than they have since Anarumo arrived. It would make sense to come after Stroud early so that he doesn’t settle in. But Anarumo knows his defensive line, even without Hubbard, is capable of providing pressure without help.

📝 @ByJayMorrison: How did the Bengals take down the Bills on SNF? Plus, six bold predictions for the rest of Cincinnati's season. All that and more on the PFN Bengals Podcast. https://t.co/LXuPiBJpLF

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• The Texans have thrown for 20+ yards on 35 of 280 attempts this season — second-best in the league.
• The Bengals have allowed 20+ yards on 11.5 percent of opponent attempts — third-worst in the league.

Analysis: The explosives have been an irritant to Anarumo since he arrived, and the fact that they are giving up so many this year certainly is a sore spot. There was a belief they would have to endure some in the early going with two new starting safeties, but it’s the midpoint of the season and it’s still happening.

The Bengals gave up three 20+ passes last week to the Bills after allowing eight against the 49ers. It’s something that needs to improve, and Sunday against a rookie quarterback thriving on big shots would be a good time to start.

• The Bengals have gone three-and-out on 28.6% of their fourth-quarter drives this year — worst in the NFL.
• The Texans forced three-and-outs on 29.2% of opponents’ fourth-quarter drives — third-best in the league.

Analysis: This one really is a head scratcher given quarterback Joe Burrow’s reputation as a closer. But we started seeing these cracks last year during the playoff run, where the Bengals struggled to move the ball late in games, especially the AFC Championship against the Chiefs.

The Bengals are on an absolute heater when it comes to starting games, scoring touchdowns on their first two drives in three consecutive games and converting their opening possession into a touchdown on four in a row.

MORE: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

But it’s been the defense closing out games more so than Burrow and the offense. The Bengals have scored 40 points in the fourth quarter this year, which is tied for 26th. Only one team with a winning record has scored fewer (Chiefs, 19).

But improving their ranking in fourth-quarter three-and-outs isn’t just about scoring. Just getting a first down or two — as they did on the final possession against the Bills — to kill the clock is the main objective.

• Texans running backs have averaged just 3.8 yards after the catch since Week 6 — worst in the NFL.
• The Bengals have allowed just 6.6 yards after the catch to running backs in that span — third-best in the league.

Analysis: Yeah, a Week 6 starting point is a small sample size, but the linebackers Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson have been locking down opposing running backs for a long time. For the season, the Bengals rank sixth in the fewest yards after catch by opposing running backs with 230 on 31 receptions (7.4). The Texans will be without starting running back Dameon Pierce, who leads the team in YAC with 86 on nine catches.

• The Bengals are 5-0 against top-five passing offenses since the start of the 2022 season — tied with the Eagles for best in the NFL.

Analysis: Two of those wins have come this season against the Rams in Week 3 and the Bills last week. The Texans come into this game with the No. 4-ranked passing attack, averaging 264.1 yards per game.

What’s notable about those two previous games isn’t as much what the Bengals did against the pass, but how they fared against the run, making the opponent one-dimensional. The Rams only got 71 yards on the ground, and the Bills had just 68, 44 of which came on Josh Allen scrambles.

The Texans not only will be without their starting running back in Pierce, they’ll also be without their leading wide receiver in Nico Collins. This is a good chance for the Bengals to run that record to 6-0. It’s also worth noting that two other current top-five passing attacks are on the remaining schedule — the Vikings and the Chiefs.

Bengals vs. Texans Predictions

• Adam Beasley: Bengals
• David Bearman: Bengals
• Dalton Miller: Bengals
• Dallas Robinson: Bengals
• Jay Morrison: Bengals

For all of PFN’s Week 10 predictions, click here.

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