Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns: Seven Crucial Stats and PFN’s Game Predictions

For the first time in NFL history, a game will feature two players with contracts totaling more than half a billion dollars when the Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow, who signed a five-year, $275 million extension Thursday, and Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (five years, $230 million) take center stage in the 100th renewal of the Battle of Ohio.

The Bengals have lost five straight games in Cleveland, dating back to Marvin Lewis’ final trip there in 2018. They have never lost six in a row on the road to their in-state rivals.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Game Preview

Zac Taylor is 0-4 in his first four visits to FirstEnergy Stadium. No Bengals coach ever has started his career 0-5 at Cleveland.

Regardless of where the game has been played, season openers have not been a strong point for the Bengals in recent years. They’ve gone 1-3 under Taylor, with the lone win coming courtesy of a late Dalvin Cook fumble in 2021, enabling the Bengals to beat the Vikings in overtime.

MORE: NFL Week 1 Injury Report

Last year, of course, was Burrow’s five-turnover game against the Steelers, although an injury to long snapper Clark Harris ended up being a fatal blow to an impressive Bengals’ comeback attempt, with them ultimately losing in overtime.

The 0-2 start last year cost the Bengals the chance to host more than one playoff game and potentially all of them.

Burrow is healthier to start this year, even though he missed five weeks with a strained calf. The Bengals have a more talented and deeper roster, with the biggest addition being left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who is familiar with the AFC North wars and his battles with Myles Garrett from his time with the Baltimore Ravens.

Seven Bengals-Browns Stats From Inside Edge

• The Bengals had a third-down conversion rate of 29.1% on 3-and-10+ last season — fourth-best in the NFL.
• The Browns defense allowed a third-down conversion rate of 25.8% on 3rd-and-10+ — second-worst in the NFL.

Analysis: The Bengals offense is built to avoid such situations, with the coaching staff favoring efficiency over explosion in the run game and Burrow willing to quickly settle for checkdowns — a product of both philosophy and history after getting sacked so many times his first three seasons in the league.

The Bengals were 16 of 55 in 3rd-and-10+. Those 55 attempts were the 12th fewest in the league, so their effort to avoid third-and-long was successful, but they were still able to cash in at a high rate when it happened.

How important is the stat? The top three teams ahead of the Bengals were the Chiefs (41.9%), Bills (31.9%), and 49ers (29.8%), all division winners.

• Burrow has a passer rating of 109.8 with 7-10 yards to go since the 2021 season — the best of 35 qualifying quarterbacks.

Analysis: Two full seasons is not a small sample size. Burrow has 669 pass attempts in these third-and-long situations. What’s curious about this stat is the top five is not simply a list of the current best quarterbacks in the league. Jimmy Garoppolo is second (99.8), followed by Ryan Tannehill (98.2), Geno Smith (98.0), and Jalen Hurts (97.1).

The Browns have a talented defense, and there figure to be multiple occasions Sunday where the Bengals will need between 7-10 yards to convert on third down.

Watson, by the way, did not have enough opportunities to qualify among the 35 quarterbacks. He was 8 of 15 on 3-and-7-10 for 88 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions for a 93.2 rating last year.

• The Browns ran successful plays on just 38% of their pass attempts on the opponent’s side of the field last season — third-worst in the NFL.
• The Bengals allowed successful plays on just 42.4% of passes on their own side of the field last season — third-best.

Analysis: Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo says it all the time when talking about what matters to him: “points, not yards.” The Bengals defensive players have an uncanny ability to get tougher the closer their backs are to the goal line.

Keeping the Browns out of the end zone and having to rely on a history of kicking issues could be the difference between the Bengals coming home 1-0 vs. 0-1.

• The Bengals were 10-0 when allowing less than three sacks last season — best in the NFL.
• The Browns averaged just 2.0 sacks per game last year — tied for fifth-worst.

Analysis: It’s hard to envision how a team employing Myles Garrett could average just two sacks per game, but it happened. Just look at the two games the Bengals and Browns played in 2022 to see this stat come to light. In Week 8 at Cleveland, the Browns had five sacks and won 32-13. In Week 14 in Cincinnati, the Browns had just two and lost 23-10.

In the five games prior to the Bengals win in December, Cincinnati’s offensive line failed to hold the Browns below three sacks all five times.

Jonah Williams, who is making his first career start at right tackle, going against Garrett will be one of the biggest matchups to watch on Sunday.

• Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase had 14 receptions in the red zone in 2022 — tied for most in the league.

Analysis: Defensive coordinators have been devising schemes directly aimed at slowing Chase since about halfway through his breakout rookie season, but those plans go out the window when the field shrinks in the red zone.

The Bengals added Irv Smith Jr., who should be the best tight end threat in the red zone Burrow has had, and the downhill run scheme the team switched to last year should make Joe Mixon and the other backs more effective inside the 20.

The fact that Chase leads the league in anything should not be a surprise, but when you’re talking about a volume stat, it’s even more impressive given that he only played 12 games last year. The other two receivers with 14 red-zone receptions in 2022 were the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and both played all 17 games.

• Since the 1970 merger, the Browns have lost more season openers than any other team, and their .310 winning percentage is well below the next lowest team, the Arizona Cardinals (.387).
• The Browns are 1-17-1 in their last 19 season openers.

Analysis: History isn’t the best barometer, given that what happened 50, 25, even 10 years ago has no bearing on Sunday. But 1-17-1 is a pretty damning trend. Two of those 17 losses came against the Bengals, a 27-17 loss in 2011 — Andy Dalton’s debut — and a 27-13 final score in 2005. Browns fans might opt to say their team is 1-0 in openers since 2022, after winning 26-24 at Carolina last year to snap an 18-game winless streak.

• The Bengals were 7-2 (.778) against the spread on the road in 2022 — tied for second-best in the NFL.

Analysis: It was actually 9-2 if you count the two road playoff games at Buffalo and Kansas City, and that was a continuation of an impressive run to end 2021 when they went 6-0 in their final six games away from Paycor Stadium, including the Super Bowl, AFC Championship Game, and Division Round contest. That’s 15-2 against the spread in their last 17 road games.

The two losses in that stretch were Week 2 at Dallas, when they were 7-point favorites and fell 20-17, and Week 8 at Cleveland, when the Bengals were 3-point favorites and got drubbed 32-13. The line for Sunday in Cleveland is similar at -2.5.

[the _ad id=”310498″]

Bengals vs. Browns Predictions

• Adam Beasley: Bengals
• David Bearman: Bengals
• Dalton Miller: Bengals
• Jay Morrison: Bengals
• Dallas Robinson: Bengals

For all of PFN’s Week 1 predictions, click here.