Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals Predictions: 7 Crucial Stats and Players To Watch Include Joe Mixon, Zach Ertz

The Cincinnati Bengals will head to the desert in search of their first first-half offensive touchdown of the season when they face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.

This is just the second time in franchise history the Bengals have started a season in which they failed to score an offensive touchdown before halftime in four consecutive games. The 2002 team that finished 2-14 also went the first four games without one (nearly a fifth) before Corey Dillon scored on a 2-yard run with 46 seconds left before halftime in Week 5.

The Bengals haven’t gone without a first-half offensive touchdown for five consecutive games at any point in a season since at least 1987.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Preview

The Bengals are trying to avoid falling to 1-4, which would all but derail their hopes for a third consecutive postseason berth. Only 8% of teams that start 1-4 have made the playoffs, and no one has done it since 2020, and that was only because the Washington Football Team played in an awful NFC East Division that it won with a 7-9 record.

The Cardinals are 1-3, with the lone win coming against one of the best teams in the league, the Dallas Cowboys. There was a lot of talk about Arizona tanking the season to try to get the No. 1 overall pick and draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams, but the Cardinals have led in three of their first four games and have played with the lead for 113 minutes and 24 seconds this season.

Two days in a row with a new back injury for the #Bengals, who have 4 starters listed as questionable. https://t.co/1wBQ4mR7Sf

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) October 6, 2023

The Bengals have had the lead for just 28 minutes and 22 seconds.

Head coach Zac Taylor has been adamant that a fast start and playing with the lead will be key to opening up everything they want to do offensively in addition to allowing the defense to return to form.

In the last two weeks, the Bengals have won the toss and taken the ball instead of deferring. That strategy has led to just three points.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart

But if they win the toss again Sunday, look for them to take the ball again to try to jump-start the league’s No. 32 ranked offense.

7 Bengals-Cardinals Stats From Inside Edge

• The Cardinals have thrown the ball 68 percent of the time in the red zone this season — second-highest in the NFL.
• The Bengals have allowed six receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-most in the league.

Analysis: The Bengals only allowed 13 passing touchdowns in the red zone last year, and there was only one game in which they allowed more than one (Tom Brady had three in Cincinnati’s 34-23 win in Week 15). Lou Anarumo’s defense has given up multiple passing touchdowns in the red zone in two of their last three games.

The Bengals knew there would be some growing pains in terms of communication with two new starting safeties Dax Hill and Nick Scott (and a cornerback in Cam Taylor-Britt, who is in his first full season as a starter). They figured they could live with them early on if everything else was equal, but it hasn’t been as poor tackling and containment have led to the Bengals giving up 157 rushing yards per game, which is second-most in the league.

The Cardinals are tied for 24th in red-zone drives (10), but they are tied for 11th in red-zone touchdown percentage (60.0). One of the hallmarks of the Bengals’ defense has been to force teams to settle for field goals in the red zone, and that will need to return on Sunday.

• The Bengals have allowed 5.6 receptions per game to tight ends since Week 15 of last year — tied for fourth-worst in the league.
• Arizona tight end Zach Ertz has 20 receptions in that span, which is tied for fifth-best in the league, and he didn’t even play in Weeks 15-18 last year.

Analysis: The Bengals could be spread thin in the secondary Sunday with Cam Taylor-Britt (concussion) and Chidobe Awuzie (back) listed as questionable. If either can’t go, look for rookie second-round pick DJ Turner II to get his first NFL start after platooning with Awuzie for the first four weeks.

Anarumo likes to use safety Dax Hill against opposing tight ends, and so far this season, Hill has been targeted seven times while in coverage against tight ends, allowing five receptions for 50 yards.

Turner has been solid in coverage all year, regardless of the down and position of the receiver. He’s been targeted nine times and has allowed just one reception, a 4-yard gain by Cleveland’s Elijah Moore in the opener.

More on what #Bengals Ja'Marr Chase had to say today about being called into Zac Taylor's office and his other comments in the media, including reflections on the "Elves" and "Pat Who?" quotes: https://t.co/4s0dqNq2Si pic.twitter.com/uj4iZAFBwi

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) October 5, 2023

• Cincinnati wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has 116 receptions in his last 16 games. His 7.2 catches per game are tied for third-most in the league since the start of 2022.
• The Cardinals have allowed 24 receptions per game since the start of 2022 — tied for fourth-worst in the league.

Analysis: Chase missed five games last year — four due to injury and the canceled Buffalo game. If he hits his average of seven catches against the Cardinals, that would give him 123 over the equivalent of a 17-game season.

Only 38 players since the 1970 merger have accomplished that, and only one played for the Bengals. T.J. Houshmandzadeh had 125 catches in a 17-game span from November 2006 to November 2007.

MORE: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings

Chase hasn’t been able to hit the explosive plays he’s accustomed to with the way defenses are playing armed with the knowledge that quarterback Joe Burrow’s mobility is compromised, but he still is seeing a heavy volume of targets.

• Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon has 28.2 receiving yards per game since the start of 2022 — fifth-most in the league among qualified players.
• The Cardinals have allowed 45.2 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs — the worst in the NFL.

Analysis: That combination, coupled with the fact that the Bengals may not have wide receiver Tee Higgins and the Cardinals could copy the Titans’ heavy-blitz attack, might lead to a lot of targets for Mixon on checkdowns.

The Bengals have been taking Mixon off the field on third down (just 22 of his 182 snaps) due to him being a liability in pass protection, but he’s been good with the ball in space.

Mixon’s 93 yards after catch are second-most on the team (Chase, 148), and his 10.3 YAC per reception not only leads the Bengals but ranks third among all offensive players behind Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson (11.7) and Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco (11.4).

The crackdown was a huge weapon for the Bengals last year with Samaje Perine and Hayden Hurst, and the Bengals need to lean into Mixon more in that role.

• The Bengals have thrown the ball 64.4 percent of the time this season — second-highest in the NFL.
• The Cardinals have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback this year — fourth-worst in the league.

Analysis: The Bengals are not going to turn into a run-heavy team, even with Burrow’s mobility hampered by the calf injury. As Burrow gets healthier and, presumably, as the team starts winning more games, the percentage is likely to decline somewhat as the Bengals would be running the ball in the fourth quarter with a lead.

Until then, they are going to keep riding Burrow’s right arm, for better or worse. Minnesota leads the league with passes on 65.4 percent of their plays, and the Vikings are in a similar spot as the Bengals being a playoff team off to a disappointing 1-3 start.

NFL offenses entering Week 5 pic.twitter.com/hQQh3icaNs

— SumerSports (@SumerSports) October 5, 2023

• The Cardinals are 5-13 (.263) at home since the start of the 2021 season — tied for the second-worst winning percentage in the league.

Analysis: The Cardinals started this run 3-0 as part of their 7-0 start to the 2021 season. So they are 2-13 in their last 15 games at home, although one of those wins was an impressive 28-16 upset of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3.

Only the Texans are worse at home (3-15-1, .184) than the Cardinals since the start of 2021.

The Bengals, despite losing their first two road games this year by a combined score of 51-6, have the league’s sixth-best road winning percentage since 2021, going 11-8 (.579).

• The Bengals are 12-4 against the spread and straight up when favored by at least three points in road games since 2015.

Analysis: They opened as 5-point favorites Sunday night, and the line quickly dropped to 3. A big reason for that is the question of Burrow’s health, but he said he felt as good physically after the Titans game as he has all season. Head coach Zac Taylor said Burrow is far healthier now than he was before tweaking the re-aggravating calf in Week 2 against the Ravens.

Most Bengals fans couldn’t care less about covering the spread; they just want a win. The schedule could not have lined up any better for what has become a must-win game, unless, of course, the Bengals were playing the Cardinals at home.

MORE: 2023 NFL Offense Rankings

Despite the surprise win against the Cowboys, the Cardinals still possess arguably the worst roster in the league. And the Bengals, despite 1-3, have one of the best. If Cincinnati can’t get right in the desert, it’s going to be a long season.

Bengals vs. Cardinals Predictions

• David Bearman: Cardinals
• Adam Beasley: Cardinals
• Dalton Miller: Cardinals
• Jay Morrison: Bengals
• Dallas Robinson: Bengals

For all of PFN’s Week 5 predictions, we have you covered.