Fantasy managers are going to need some help this week to advance to the next round of the playoffs, and every start/sit decision matters!
We’re diving into the outlooks for Chuba Hubbard or James Conner in fantasy football for Week 16.
Should you start either player this week?
Should You Start Chuba Hubbard or James Conner This Week?
The Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer says Conner is the player to start. His projected 9.0 points include 34.6 rushing yards, 2.8 receptions, 18.5 receiving yards, and 0.4 TDs. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the PFN Consensus Projection for Hubbard (8.4 points).
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Hubbard outperforming Conner due to a solid role and a better matchup. Conner has a big enough role in the offense to make this look silly, but Hubbard has a great matchup and a consistent role.
Fantasy Outlook for Hubbard This Week
Hubbard has taken over the backfield in Carolina and is seeing fantastic volume. Not only that, he’s taken that opportunity and run with it. Despite playing for the Carolina Panthers, with the fewest wins in the NFL, Hubbard has carried the ball at least 22 times in each of the last three games.
All while playing for a bottom-four scoring team averaging under 15 points per game, Hubbard continues to provide productive weeks for fantasy. Even with poor matchups, the Panthers will lean on the run game and keep Hubbard very valuable.
In Hubbard’s last two games, he’s seen over 70% of snaps for just the second and third time all season. He’s totaled at least 96 yards from scrimmage in the last three weeks and scored two touchdowns in that span.
The matchup for Hubbard is fantastic, too. The Green Bay Packers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the RB position in the last month of the season. As long as the Panthers can play a decent game and keep it within a couple of scores, then Hubbard ought to see enough volume to be at least a solid RB2.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
I’d expect another 20-25 carries for Hubbard, likely for near or over 100 yards, and he’s a decent bet to score. The Packers have allowed four rushing TDs in their last four games on 92 carries.
So, on that level of volume, you would expect the Packers to allow about one TD to Hubbard, assuming the Panthers can move the ball decently.
Fantasy Outlook for Conner This Week
Conner has been a stud for a couple of weeks now, but he still feels like a bit of a risk in this game. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy RB each of the last two weeks (with the bye in between). In the three weeks prior, his highest finish was RB28.
Even over the last two weeks, he performed on 25 and 14 carries, so he might need to be extremely efficient. In Week 15, Conner didn’t even see half the Arizona Cardinals’ snaps, sitting at just 49%. He just happened to run for 86 yards and a TD on those carries, showing extreme efficiency against a tough San Francisco 49ers run defense.
He’ll need to keep that efficiency up or see a lot more volume to pay off in Week 16, as the Chicago Bears have been a great run defense recently. Over the last four weeks, the Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the RB position and just a single TD against.
Given this, Conner is more of a risky RB2/Flex play than the safer volume play Hubbard is. Conner really would need to see closer to 20+ carries for him to feel safe as an RB2 for me. Given that he’s only surpassed three targets in a game twice all year, Conner is riding a bench in favor of Hubbard if I were setting the lineup.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!