Despite the Carolina Panthers‘ desire to make Miles Sanders their lead back, Chuba Hubbard won the team’s RB1 job during the season last year. Now, Hubbard must contend with the top-drafted rookie Jonathon Brooks. What does Hubbard’s fantasy football projection tell us about his 2024 outlook?
Chuba Hubbard’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 9.2
- Rushing Yards: 755
- Rush TDs: 4.5
- Receptions: 29
- Receiving Yards: 222
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Hubbard This Year?
Before writing this, I went back and looked at my Best Ball outlook for Hubbard. In most cases, the general analysis is similar. For Hubbard, it couldn’t be more different.
I was pretty optimistic about Hubbard’s fantasy outlook back in March. Of course, that was before the NFL Draft, when the Panthers were the first team to select a running back.
The Panthers’ taking of Brooks only adds to the challenge of projecting Hubbard. Brooks is coming off a torn ACL. When he returns, which will not be until after Week 5, he will not be a three-down back right away (if ever).
We may see a slow ramp-up of Brooks’ usage. Hubbard’s projection won’t be able to effectively reflect the fact that he might open the season as a viable Flex play before fading during the middle part of the year.
You may look at Hubbard’s 10.7 fantasy points per game from last season and not be impressed. You certainly won’t find anything that stands out with his efficiency metrics. He averaged 3.0 yards created per touch (outside the top 40), and just 3.8% of his carries went for 15+ yards (outside the top 30), to name a couple.
What you will find is a running back who was really solid over the second half of the season. In games where Hubbard played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged 13.5 fantasy ppg. He even threw in two games of 20.2 and 22.4 fantasy points, making himself a solid fantasy RB2.
I have confidence that Hubbard will perform better than expected if given the opportunity. However, I’m projecting Brooks to be the clear lead back by midseason, if not sooner.
I have Hubbard projected for 660 rushing yards, 21 receptions for 149 receiving yards, and 6.0 total touchdowns. That comes out to 8.13 fantasy points per game, placing him at RB45 in my projections, not too dissimilar to the PFN consensus.
Hubbard’s ADP is RB44, which is identical to my RB44 ranking. The price is low enough that he’s a viable selection as a handcuff and a guy you might be able to start early in the season before Brooks gets going.
Given the Panthers’ RB depth chart, we can also be reasonably confident in Hubbard’s status as the primary beneficiary should Brooks get hurt or not fully recover this season.
Hubbard is a fine selection as your fantasy team’s RB5, but he does lack the potential to win his team’s lead-back job on performance alone. If you opt to go with lower floor, higher ceiling options, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Chuba Hubbard
Running backs who have failed to emerge as fantasy producers through the first couple of years in the NFL can be easy to overlook on draft day. Yet, Hubbard’s breakout season over the back half of last season certainly caught the attention of fantasy managers in 2023.
Outside of Adam Thielen, Hubbard’s RB27 fantasy finish — with 902 rushing yards, five scores, and 233 receiving yards on 39 receptions — was one of the very few bright spots of this Panthers’ offense last year. Sure, his RB27 status was nice considering the struggles of the offense as a whole, but one could make an argument he was a bit better than this number when you provide some context.
Hubbard swiped the feature role away from Miles Sanders with his 16 fantasy points back in Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins and never really looked back. In fact, from Week 6 through the rest of the season, Hubbard was the RB19. He was everything fantasy managers hoped Sanders would be in 2023.
Now, it’s worth mentioning that Hubbard’s fantasy value came from his volume as opposed to his exceptional play. His substandard 3.79 yards per carry and just 1.7 yards after contact per attempt were similar to what we saw from Sanders in 2023. Additionally, Hubbard’s 4.1 yards per touch and 0.87 yards per route run both ranked outside of the top 30 at the RB position.
If Carolina had kept this backfield status quo heading into this season, then it could have been easier to project a nice jump in production. Instead, the Panthers were the first team to select a running back in the 2024 NFL Draft by spending the 46th pick on talented Texas RB Jonathon Brooks. This type of draft capital suggests Carolina sees Brooks as a major contributor to this backfield in the short and long term.
Hubbard will likely have the inside track to touches and snaps to start the season. Meanwhile, the Panthers will ease Brooks into the offense following his knee injury. Yet, the two could find themselves in a timeshare once the talented rookie showcases he’s healthy enough to see an expanded role.
