Once Thomas Brown took over the play-calling duties for the Carolina Panthers, the Chuba Hubbard dynasty discussion changed. Instead of being a handcuff RB, Hubbard turned into a featured option that wasn’t threatened by a running back in Miles Sanders, who will make roughly five times what he does in 2024.
We say it all the time and will continue to — volume holds value. Regardless of what you think of Hubbard’s skill set, if he’s one of the few featured backs that this league offers, he’s set to produce at a viable level.
Should Hubbard now be viewed as a consistent lineup option, or was what we saw in 2023 a mirage that should be used as fuel in the fantasy football trade market?
Chuba Hubbard’s Dynasty Outlook
In redraft formats, there is no time to wait. Everyone has the same goal for the season, and every single matchup means more. In dynasty formats, some managers elect to play the long game, and, to them, volume in the short term is only valuable in terms of making a trade.
Hubbard still shares this Carolina backfield with a well-compensated Sanders, and while I have him labeled as the favorite to break camp as the bell cow, that’s not a certainty. In a best-case situation, Hubbard is the Week 1 starter for a team with well-below-average offensive expectations.
With a low ceiling and the potential to be part of a committee that struggled to produce a single valuable back last season, Hubbard’s ranking is stuck in reverse.
Hubbard’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Hubbard land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Kyle Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Hubbard lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Kyle Soppe’s Top 40 RB Rankings
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) James Cook | BUF
9) Saquon Barkley | NYG
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Tony Pollard | TEN
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
17) Josh Jacobs | GB
18) D’Andre Swift | CHI
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Aaron Jones | MIN
21) Austin Ekeler | WAS
22) Tyjae Spears | TEN
23) Joe Mixon | HOU
24) Nick Chubb | CLE
25) Najee Harris | PIT
26) David Montgomery | DET
27) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
28) Jaylen Warren | PIT
29) Raheem Mostert | MIA
30) Derrick Henry | BAL
31) Khalil Herbert | CHI
32) James Conner | ARI
33) Kendre Miller | NO
34) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
35) Roschon Johnson | CHI
36) Dameon Pierce | HOU
37) Tank Bigsby | JAX
38) J.K. Dobbins | FA
39) AJ Dillon | GB
40) Miles Sanders | CAR
Should You Trade Hubbard in Dynasty?
Let’s, for a moment, assume that the role as the primary back is Hubbard’s and Hubbard’s alone. Is he the type of back that can take advantage of the opportunity?
Through three seasons, we don’t have much in the way of proof. Since entering the league, he ranks 21st in rush attempts but is not one of the 111 players with a run gaining more than 35 yards over that stretch.
CONTINUE READING: Fantasy Impact of Dave Canales Hire
The lack of splash plays is a nail in the coffin for a running back who plays on a team that isn’t likely to improve dramatically anytime soon, thus putting favorable game scripts essentially out of the question.
In 2023, the Panthers had 96 offensive plays with a lead (third fewest over the past decade — 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars and 2017 Cleveland Browns), a number that seems so much like a typo that I had to triple-check it. Yep. Just 96 snaps throughout an entire 17-game season.
The Browns ranked 26th in plays with a lead following their dreadful season, while the Jaguars followed theirs up by again finishing dead last. Carolina is playing the long game, which could pay dividends, but this is the exact sort of situation where any exposure to the backfield is too much.
For his career, Hubbard has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 49.7% of his carries (NFL RB average over that stretch: 44.3%). In 2023, his rate was 51.7%. While he shouldn’t be held as the lone influence on that number, his situation isn’t set to improve in 2024.
If you have Hubbard as roster depth, there’s no harm in that, as you’re not counting on him consistently. If a manager in your league is willing to give you the potential of getting more than that (be it a young receiver without a clear path to work or a reasonable pick in your 2024 rookie draft), I’d pounce in a heartbeat.
There aren’t many featured backs in today’s NFL. If you can get creative in packaging Hubbard with such a title, you stand to gain roster value, even if the 2024 numbers you get in return may be less than what you’re giving up.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Dynasty Rankings
That said, Hubbard’s path to an acceptable role is there, and that isn’t the type of profile I’d suggest parting ways with for an underwhelming package.
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