Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson is rumored to have improved his durability this summer and has shown the ability to put up fantasy football numbers in bunches when at full strength. The industry, as a whole, wants to bet on the trajectory of this offense — does that make Watson an auto-click in the seventh round?
Christian Watson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 168 (124 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 44
- Receiving Yards: 664
- Receiving TDs: 8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Watson This Year?
Watson missed eight games and battled soft tissue issues for the majority of the season. Injuries are one thing, but for a player who relies on threatening defenses vertically, the lingering effects can be just as detrimental. The temptation to play Watson when active is there, but when at less than 100%, he’s more risk than reward.
After a sparkling rookie season, Watson experienced levels of regression that we expected when he was on the field in 2023.
- 2022: +33.4% production over expectation
- 2023: +2.7% production over expectation
Watson’s yards per route run last season declined by 31% from 2022. That’s a red flag for me.
He was able to thrive in the Aaron Rodgers version of Green Bay’s offense, but as Jordan Love’s star began to shine, it was Jayden Reed positioning himself as the alpha receiver.
Of course, that’s only a one-season sample, and I’m not positive that Watson was ever really right. The fact that the Packers ranked 10th in pass rate over expectation last season tells me that they are all in on the Love experience (they ranked 19th in Rodgers’ final season), a style of play-calling that can return multiple fantasy assets at the WR position.
I think we can expect better health from Watson in 2024 than last season, though I’m not sure we get the type of consistent production that we want. He’s yet to prove himself as a strong target earner, instead relying on scores to drive his fantasy value.
Don’t get me wrong, touchdowns are valuable. They’re just difficult to rely on when the volume isn’t there.
Consider this: Watson has scored on 12 of his 69 receptions in the NFL, a rate that is 34.7% greater than Calvin Johnson’s career mark.
Of course, Watson’s ADP (WR40) doesn’t require him to be effective week in and week out to turn a profit. That said, the sporadic nature of scores can make him a maddening stash that you seem to play on the down weeks and bench when he produces.
For me, drafting Watson is more dependent on your roster-construction goals than anything. If you’re willing to embrace variance, this is exactly the profile you want.
If you’re more of a conservative drafter, wide receivers like Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and even rookie Ladd McConkey are all great bets for consistent volume and are being drafted in the same general range.
I’m more likely to roll the dice on a Romeo Doubs or Dontayvion Wicks 40+ picks after Watson if I want cheaper exposure to the Packers’ offense than what Reed offers. The hierarchy of targets in Green Bay is very much in flux, making these dart throws more interesting to me than a middle-round risk on the hamstrings of the Packers’ burner.