The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson and his 2023 fantasy football projections to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Watson still hit his ceiling with a new first-time starting QB, and should the explosive wideout be a player you draft this year?
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Christian Watson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Every year, there’s a group of players that you’ll find people struggle to project and rank. For me, one of those players is Watson, who is coming into a second year in the league, and despite some highlight reel plays, he’s an unknown, to some extent.
After he blew up the NFL Combine and Senior Bowl, Watson was the darling of the offseason last year. He missed three of his first seven games due to injury, but then Watson went on an incredible hot streak.
He finished no lower than the WR10 between Weeks 10 through 13 as the WR7 overall with seven touchdowns. This window accounted for 60.4% of his entire point total.
It was the highlight of Watson’s rookie season. In total, he caught 41 of 65 passes for 611 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. He also saw some manufactured touches, rushing seven times for 80 yards with two more scores.
Some of the metrics certainly look great for Watson’s development. He was 14th in open rate, 12th in yards per route run, and third in points per route run. He was also fourth in YAC/reception and was one of the highest-ranked players in his ability to separate on deep passes.
But here’s the problem, Aaron Rodgers isn’t here anymore. It’s tough to expect that same efficiency with Jordan Love, the biggest unknown of any player coming in 2023.
Watson was No. 2 in QB rating when targeted and No. 1 in points per target, but he posted a below-average success rate in the majority of routes in which an X receiver needs to be proficient, such as digs, comebacks, and slants.
Most of his route tree was made up of flats, corners, posts, and nines, which would be expected of someone with his athleticism.
The Packers knew Watson was a project, and his stats show someone still developing. But without Rodgers’ ability to mask Watson’s inefficiencies, what truly is his outlook for this year?
Watson Might Not Be Green Bay’s Most Valuable WR by Week 17
While some might be surprised to hear this, I wouldn’t be shocked if 2023 second-round pick Jayden Reed is the more consistent Packers receiver this year. Throughout his college career, the rookie had an impressive 2.18 yards per route run (YPRR) and an 11.5 aDOT. Reed also drew a target on nearly 25% of his passing downs as the top option.
He’s also an elite separator and route runner, whereas Watson isn’t. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Reed posted a 70.3% success rate vs. man, 79.2% vs. zone, and an 87th-percentile success rate vs. press at 77.8%.
If anything, Green Bay drafted a perfect complement to Watson. Reed is more polished in his release and route tree, and he is more NFL-ready, even if he doesn’t wholly surpass Watson as the No. 1 receiver.
Given the overall expected decrease in efficiency of the Packers offense, as we are going from a first-ballot Hall of Famer to Love, I am slightly down on Watson compared to others, with initial projections forecasting him for roughly 65 receptions on 110 targets for approximately 950 yards and six touchdowns.
While I am confident Watson will lead the Packers’ receivers in yards and likely touchdowns, I’m not yet prepared to discount the possibility of Reed leading in receptions. I’ll give it to Watson for now, but Reed catching the most passes is certainly in the range of outcomes.
Should You Draft Christian Watson This Year?
As noted above, while it might seem like I was throwing quite a bit of shade at Watson, I genuinely like him as a player. He’s electric when you get the ball in his hands, and he certainly has the athletic profile of someone who can take over and dominate a game. It’s just the efficiency and consistency (or lack thereof) of his and the Packers’ passing game that make me slightly concerned.
That same reservation follows me into drafts, where I can’t help but wonder if fantasy managers are overvaluing Watson based on his explosive four-game stretch last year. ADP will play a massive factor in whether or not I end up with any shares of Watson this season.
He’s currently coming off the board around the WR25 range as a mid-fifth-round selection. Meanwhile, Reed is forgotten until the end of drafts in the 16th+ round. He’s even falling behind 2022 fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs.
Value for dollar, I believe Reed ends up being a better pick than Watson, especially knowing that I have to take Watson with one of my first four or five picks, where the margin for error is slim. In that range, you’re drafting your week-in and week-out starters.
By no means will I completely fade or write off Watson as a draft day target. I have him ranked as a WR3, but if I’m trying to maximize my value in one of the prime spots of the draft, I’m not sure he’s the player I’m looking to target — though I will be more than happy to be proven wrong.