Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson flashed high upside as a rookie, but has struggled to stay on the field due to recurring hamstring issues.
After being overdrafted last season, is it possible Watson will go undrafted in 2024 fantasy football drafts?
Should You Select Christian Watson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 99th Overall (WR43)
- Injury Concerns: Watson has struggled with recurring hamstring issues that have limited his playing time. Despite this, he showed flashes of high upside when healthy, making him a risky but intriguing option.
- Target Competition: The Packers have a deep WR room, which could limit Watson’s target share. Although he has big-play potential, his fantasy value may be impacted by the presence of other capable receivers.
- ADP Analysis: Watson is currently being drafted as WR43, No. 99 overall. Given his injury history and the uncertainty surrounding his role, this ADP reflects a mix of risk and reward.
- Final Verdict: Watson has the potential to deliver significant value if he can stay healthy and carve out a consistent role. Fantasy managers should consider him a high-risk, high-reward pick in the middle rounds of drafts.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Christian Watson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Watson is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
47) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
48) Jameson Williams, WR | Detroit Lions
49) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
50) Jakobi Meyers, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
51) Tyler Lockett, WR | Seattle Seahawks
52) Christian Watson, WR | Green Bay Packers
53) Mike Williams, WR | New York Jets
54) Josh Downs, WR | Indianapolis Colts
55) Romeo Doubs, WR | Green Bay Packers
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
Christian Watson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Watson was one of the most difficult players to assess heading into the 2023 season. His 2.4 yards per route run as a rookie was 12th in the league. That was very encouraging. However, he only commanded a 15.2% target share. His seven touchdowns on 41 receptions was clearly an unsustainable level of efficiency.
Since sophomore WRs are such good investments, there was more to like about Watson last season than not. Unfortunately, the “not” won out.
Watson was one of the worst picks in fantasy last year. He continued to battle lingering hamstring issues, limiting him to just nine games played. The fact that he managed to average 11.3 fantasy points per game is actually pretty impressive.
That has made Watson a tricky player to figure out once again.
Watson scored 6.3 fantasy points or fewer in four of his nine games last season. In three others, he scored 10.5, 11.6, and 10.2. Based purely on these numbers alone, we shouldn’t care about Watson. But it’s those last two games that really entice us to give him a chance.
In Weeks 11 and 12 — which were also likely Watson’s two healthiest weeks all season — he scored 20.4 and 27.6 fantasy points. They provided a stark reminder of what Watson can do at his best.
There are two issues with Watson always being at his best, though. The first and most obvious one is the hamstring issues. On that front, there is reason for optimism.
The Packers had Watson do some offseason testing to figure out the root cause of his hamstring problems. They determined it was due to significant asymmetry in the strength of his hamstrings. Knowing one hamstring was much weaker than the other, Watson has been able to work to get them closer together in strength, which should help prevent the constant strains.
Anyone who rostered Watson last season would likely tell you the hamstring issues were the main problem. This year, the second issue seems more likely to prevent Watson from breaking out.
The Packers have a lot of useful wide receivers. There may not be a clear alpha or target leader, but they have arguably five guys who are good enough to be at least the WR3 on most NFL teams. I don’t think there’s another team in the league that can say that.
If healthy, Watson will have his days, as we saw last season. So will Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and even Bo Melton. This is a deep group and one where it’s easy to see no one playing more than 70% of the snaps on a regular basis.
Is Watson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Jordan Love broke out in a huge way last season, establishing himself as a clear NFL starter and one of the better QBs in the NFL. He’s more than capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant WRs.
Love is also being drafted as a top-12 quarterback. Given that he’s not a rusher, if Love finishes as a QB1, his pass catchers will follow him. The problem with the latter point is fantasy managers have no idea which ones will.
Reed’s WR35 ADP is the highest among Packers WRs. Watson is next at WR43 — No. 98 overall. Doubs is not far behind at WR53. Wicks is the cheapest of the bunch at WR63.
All four of these players are going to be drafted in most leagues. All four will not be worth rostering. Love is not sustaining four WRs.
Typically, the logic behind taking shots on cheap WRs tethered to good quarterbacks is to embrace the ambiguity. To an extent, I buy that with the Packers.
Initially, I was out on Watson. But as the Summer wore on and I considered the pros and cons of drafting him, I steadily moved him up my rankings, landing at WR44.
This still looks like a WR room by committee. But Watson is the one with big play upside. The most likely outcome is Watson is not an every-week starter. But he will have his weeks if he can stay healthy. I have warmed up to the idea of taking a chance on Watson at or below his ADP.