Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson failed to live up to the lofty fantasy expectations many had for the talented wideout heading into his second NFL season.
In addition to battling a lingering hamstring injury throughout the 2023 season, other playmakers emerged for QB Jordan Love down the back half of last year — casting a large cloud of uncertainty for the third-year receiver’s role in this offense in 2024.
What should fantasy football managers expect from Watson in a potentially make-or-break season in 2024?
Should You Draft Christian Watson in 2024?
After showcasing his elite playmaking ability over the back half of a WR41 fantasy finish during his rookie year, Watson drastically underperformed last season with just 28 receptions for 422 yards and five scores over his nine games played in 2023.
The impressive advanced metrics we saw from Watson in 2022 all regressed significantly, offering some context behind his disappointing 2023 campaign.
Yards After Catch per Reception:
- 2023: 3.7
- 2022: 6.8
Average Depth of Target (Positional Ranking):
- 2023: 15.4 (sixth)
- 2022: 13.8 (12th)
Yards per Route Run (Positional Ranking):
- 2023: 1.58 (51st)
- 2022: 2.40 (12th)
Not all of the advanced metrics from 2023 were necessarily a fantasy death sentence. Watson’s 15.4-yard average depth of target ranked sixth among qualified receivers, which signals he still had a clear role as the team’s best deep threat while on the field. Yet, the fact fellow receiver Jayden Reed saw a plethora of screens and carries did steal some of Watson’s upside as a YAC threat in this offense.
By all accounts, Love had an incredibly encouraging first year under center as the Packers’ long-term future at the QB position. This means there is still time for Watson to emerge as a big-time producer in this offense. Yet, this does feel like a critical season for the North Dakota State product.
In addition to Reed, both Romeo Doubs and Dontavyion Wicks emerged as reliable playmakers in this Green Bay passing offense. To further expand on Wicks, his role looked eerily similar to Watson’s during the Packers’ two playoff games last season.
NFL Wild Card Round:
- Wicks: two targets, two receptions, 25 yards, TD, 55% snap share
- Watson: one target, one reception, nine yards, 41% snap share
NFL Divisional Round:
- Wicks: two targets, zero receptions, 40% snap share
- Watson: two targets, one reception, 11 yards, 55% snap share
For some context, Watson was still battling a hamstring injury at that point of the year, one he sustained in August before the start of the 2023 campaign.
To say this hamstring injury did a number on Watson in 2023 would be an understatement. It cost him the first three games of the year, which likely led to some of Love’s struggles through the air over a five-game stretch that started in Week 4, coincidentally the exact week Watson returned to the active roster.
During the five-game period when the Packers’ offense struggled, Watson appeared in every game and contributed just 14 receptions for 236 yards and one score, making him the WR62 in PPR formats during that span.
Fortunately for you Watson truthers out there, he caught 14 passes for 186 yards and four TDs over a three-game span starting in Week 11, which put him as the WR10 in full-PPR formats over those three weeks and suggests his fantasy upside still exists.
Watson still flashed enough ability to suggest his fantasy ceiling warrants a pick in upcoming fantasy drafts, but his fantasy floor feels scarily low heading into his third season in the NFL.
Watson’s ADP of No. 97 overall, going off the board as the WR40 in the ninth round, shows that fantasy managers are certainly down on him in comparison to his ADP in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts from a year ago but aren’t quite ready to fully give up on his upside quite yet. For some additional context, Watson is currently being selected after Diontae Johnson, Jordan Addison, and rookie Xavier Worthy.
Admittedly, Watson is a bit of a fascinating case for fantasy managers heading into 2024. When he was on the field last year, there were still plenty of encouraging signs with his big-play ability and great work in the red zone. Additionally, he is still potentially positioned to see a healthy amount of targets from an ascending talent at quarterback.
Yet, his reduced role in the postseason coupled with the emergence of other young pass catchers in this Green Bay offense represents some risk of him being nothing more than a rotational explosive playmaker whose fantasy production could be volatile from game to game.
The roll of the dice at this price point still represents an appropriate amount of upside, but the floor is scary enough to point you in a different direction on draft day.