The fantasy buzz surrounding Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson after his encouraging rookie season fizzled out completely after an injury-riddled 2024 campaign that saw him miss a significant amount of time on the football field. Other young receivers emerged as viable threats to his standing in the Packers’ pass-catching order last year.
What does Watson’s dynasty value look like heading into a pivotal third season in the NFL?
Christian Watson’s Dynasty Outlook
After scoring seven touchdowns on just 41 receptions in his rookie season, many had sky-high expectations for the North Dakota State product heading into his second NFL campaign.
Quite frankly, Watson entered 2023 with many of the symptoms of a potential breakout candidate for the WR position. His yards after the catch per reception, the average depth of target, and yards per route run metrics in his rookie season all had the arrow pointing in the right direction when projecting a potentially expanded role. Unfortunately, those numbers mostly took a step in the wrong direction in 2023.
Yards After Catch Per Reception
2023: 3.7
2022: 6.8
Average Depth of Target (Positional Ranking)
2023: 15.4 (6th)
2022: 13.8 (12th)
Yards Per Route Run (Positional Ranking)
2023: 1.58 (51st)
2022: 2.40 (12th)
These numbers tell me that he was still utilized as a deep threat last year, but wasn’t as involved or as effective as a RAC threat operating underneath as he was during his rookie campaign.
There are some potential points of context to discuss regarding his drop in production, which certainly starts with his ailing hamstring injury, which cost him multiple games at multiple points throughout the 2023 season.
Could head coach Matt LaFluer have been choosing to utilize Jayden Reed in the manufactured and short game because he was weary of Watson potentially tweaking his hamstring again when on the field? Sure, that is possible. Is it possible that Reed was simply the better option in that department? Unfortunately for Watson shareholders, that is also a possibility.
Speaking of better options, suddenly, Watson appears to be in a pretty crowded receiver room with many young, talented options at QB Jordan Love’s disposal.
In addition to Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontavyion Wicks both emerged as very reliable playmakers in this Green Bay passing offense. To further expand on Wicks, his role looked eerily similar to Watson’s during the Packers’ two playoff games last season.
NFL Wild Card Round
Dontavyion Wicks: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 25 yards, TD, 55% snap share
Christian Watson: 1 target, 1 reception, 9 yards, 41% snap share
NFL Divisional Round
Dontavyion Wicks: 2 targets, 0 receptions, 40% snap share
Christian Watson: 2 targets, 1 reception, 11 yards, 55% snap share
Christian Watson rips it down for his second TD of the night as the #Packers make it a two-score game❕ pic.twitter.com/B6xsRtbNKz
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 4, 2023
This doesn’t suggest Watson has lost the job to Wicks because LaFleur could have been sparingly using Watson after returning from the injury in an attempt to limit his chances of reaggravating the injury, but it is worth noting.
To be honest, this hamstring injury really did a number on Watson in 2023. He sustained in the preseason ended up costing him the first three games of the year. To make matters worse, Love started to struggle through the air over a five-game stretch that started in Week 4, which coincidentally was the exact week Watson returned to the active roster.
During the five-game period when the Packer’s offense struggled, Watson appeared in every game and contributed just 14 receptions for 236 yards and one score, which made him the WR62 in PPR formats during that span.
Fortunately for dynasty managers, Watson and Love appeared to finally start clicking over the next three games.
Watson caught 14 passes for 186 yards and four TDs over a three-game span starting in Week 11, which put him as the WR10 in PPR formats over those three weeks, which suggests his fantasy upside still exists.
Tragedy struck again in the form of another hamstring injury toward the end of their Week 13 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs and would put him on the shelf for the final five games of the season.
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The production of the Packer’s passing offense, while Watson was unavailable this second time around, is what should have dynasty managers very concerned moving forward.
Love continued playing at a high level for the remainder of the year, which saw other young WRs like Reed, Doubs, Wicks, and even Bo Melton all make significant contributions to Green Bay’s postseason run. We’ve already detailed some of the role concerns regarding Wicks, but this time off the field certainly did enough to muddy the waters for his fantasy outlook in 2024.
The emergence of these other young pass catchers in Green Bay makes it difficult to project Watson ever seeing the alpha-type target share many hoped for heading into last year.
However, despite his disappointing 2023 campaign, Watson is still a very talented player in an ascending offense who has flashed serious big ability in brief moments through the first two seasons of his NFL career.
His dynasty value has certainly taken a dip, but he shouldn’t be completely written off quite yet.
Watson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Watson rank in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest rankings, featuring Watson’s ranking in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
3) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Tyreek Hill | MIA
9) Puka Nacua | LAR
10) Malik Nabers | NYG
11) Drake London | ATL
12) Rome Odunze | CHI
13) Chris Olave | NO
14) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
15) DeVonta Smith | PHI
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Zay Flowers | BAL
19) Ladd McConkey | LAC
20) Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
21) Xavier Worthy | KC
22) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
23) Tank Dell | HOU
24) Rashee Rice | KC
25) Tee Higgins | CIN
26) Nico Collins | HOU
27) George Pickens | PIT
28) DK Metcalf | SEA
29) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
30) Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF
31) Ricky Pearsall | SF
32) Keon Coleman | BUF
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) Malachi Corley | NYJ
35) Ja’Lynn Polk | NE
36) Adonai Mitchell | IND
37) Xavier Legette | CAR
38) Jordan Addison | MIN
39) Jayden Reed | GB
40) Amari Cooper | CLE
41) Davante Adams | LV
42) Keenan Allen | CHI
43) Stefon Diggs | HOU
44) Mike Evans | TB
45) Cooper Kupp | LAR
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Diontae Johnson | CAR
48) Josh Downs | IND
49) Christian Kirk | JAX
50) Troy Franklin | DEN
51) Malik Washington | MIA
52) Calvin Ridley | TEN
53) Chris Godwin | TB
54) Javon Baker | NE
55) DeMario Douglas | NE
56) Roman Wilson | PIT
57) Luke McCaffrey | WAS
58) Courtland Sutton | DEN
59) Devontez Walker | BAL
60) Romeo Doubs | GB
61) Jakobi Meyers | LV
62) Treylon Burks | TEN
63) Jahan Dotson | WAS
64) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
65) Marquise Brown | KC
66) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
67) Jerry Jeudy | CLE
68) Tyler Lockett | SEA
69) Mike Williams | NYJ
70) Jermaine Burton | CIN
71) Jalen McMillan | TB
72) Michael Wilson | ARI
73) Jameson Williams | DET
74) Christian Watson | GB
75) Rashod Bateman | BAL
Should You Trade Watson in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Watson? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Recency bias can create all kinds of opportunities for savvy dynasty managers to acquire quality receiver prospects who are coming off of a disappointing season while their stock is low.
Watson feels like a very talented buy-low candidate in the world of dynasty fantasy football heading into the 2024 NFL season.
His overall disappointing production through his first two years, reduced role, and the emergence of other potential pass-catching options currently clouding his place on the Green Bay depth chart make him a dynasty asset that saw his fantasy value drop significantly from where he was at a full calendar year ago.
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If you are a current shareholder of Watson, then I believe he is a much stronger hold at the moment than a sell-low option. Sure, if someone offers you a high second-round rookie draft pick and you want to cash out on the risk involved with Watson’s current situation, then I would consider it.
However, I’d be far more intrigued to see if I could acquire Watson at a significant discount to see if he can emerge as a reliable pass catcher for Love moving into 2024 and beyond.
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