As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Christian Watson.
Christian Watson’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
It’s not unfair to call Watson the most valuable fantasy asset on the Green Bay Packers. He’s an elite athlete with blazing 4.36 speed at 6’4”, 208 pounds. Despite a turbulent rookie season, Watson made it well past the 500 receiving-yard threshold we need to see from wide receivers in their inaugural NFL season.
The speedster caught 41 of 66 targets for 611 yards and seven touchdowns. The seven TDs were simply outrageous. Watson scoring that many times on such few receptions is unheard of. He hit paydirt on 17% of his catches.
What makes Watson’s rookie season even more encouraging is that it was really only half of a season. In addition to battling several injuries throughout the year, after Week 1, Watson didn’t see more than a 30% snap share again until Week 10. In fact, prior to Week 10, Watson had just 10 receptions for 88 yards on the year.
From Weeks 10-18, Watson averaged 17.2 ppg. You don’t need me to tell you those are WR1 numbers. Now, to be fair, as we’ve established, the bulk of his production came from touchdowns, and we can’t expect him to score anywhere near that rate again. However, Watson did post three 100-yard games over that span. That’s far more encouraging than any anomalous TD rate.
Watson didn’t need volume to produce, as his 13.8 yards average depth of target was 12th in the league. He averaged 2.4 yards per route run, also 12th in the league. The best part is that his target share has so much room to grow.
Watson looks like he will be the Packers’ WR1 of the future. He averaged 11.7 ppg as a rookie on just a 15.2% target share, but a WR1 target share is typically around 25%. Even with an expected drop in touchdown rate, Watson should make up for it with increased volume.
Christian Watson’s Fantasy Ranking
The biggest concern for Watson’s long-term value is his quarterback situation. We know it will be Jordan Love this year. But Love is entering his fourth season. If he doesn’t play well, the Packers could move on after this year.
With that said, there’s really nothing we can do about predicting Watson’s quarterback. We have to bet on talent, and by all accounts, Watson has plenty of it.
MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Wide Receiver
He should be considered a dynasty WR2 and is definitely the type of player you should be looking to acquire. We currently have Watson at WR24 (No. 64 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. He certainly has the talent to push toward the top 12 by this point next year.
Second-year wide receivers are historically good bets, so if you’re doing a dynasty startup draft this summer, Watson is the exact type of receiver you should be targeting.