It’s likely that there is no wrong answer at the top of fantasy football drafts this season with a handful of players widely considered Tier 1 options, but when splitting hairs, the trends point a specific direction in this faceoff of two game breakers in Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey’s case essentially writes itself. He is the focal point of what should again be one of, if not the, most efficient offenses in the league, and he’s there for you every single week.
When his historic touchdown streak came to an end, it highlighted shows last November. Yes, we were disappointed by a game in which he gained 142 yards and saw 10 targets. The bar is set so high for McCaffrey, and he refuses to let us down.
He’s a running back, so this run of dominance will likely end sooner than we want, but he’s built up enough goodwill that we need to see signs of decline before assuming that. McCaffrey joined the San Francisco 49ers midway through 2022, fresh off of a pair of injury-shortened seasons and question marks within the fantasy community.
Managers questioned if he was still worthy of “elite” status in the overall scope of the game with so many great receivers emerging. Those concerns didn’t last long.
In his 27 regular season games with San Francisco, all he has done is pile up over 3,200 yards and score 27 times.
McCaffrey’s skill set and offensive environment could well be among the five most friendly of all time, and he continues to show impressive durability.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
After being used as the bell cow during the regular season, McCaffrey had enough gas left in the tank to score five times and record 78 touches in three playoff games.
If you’re poking holes in CMC’s profile, you’re simply getting too cute.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Tyreek Hill
After joining the Miami Dolphins, Hill made noise about Tua Tagovailoa’s accuracy and compared it to that of Patrick Mahomes. While most think he is still a little crazy for likening the two, his uptick in production after switching teams gives his statements credibility — he’s been nothing short of special.
Hill plays with the turbo button pressed down at all times, and NFL defenses have yet to show the ability to keep up over the course of a full 60 minutes.
Since 2022
- Hill: 3,509 yards on 999 routes
- CeeDee Lamb: 3,108 yards on 1,194 routes
- Justin Jefferson: 2,952 yards on 1,152 routes
Lamb and Jefferson are widely regarded as the best at it, but their efficiency numbers simply don’t compare to those of the man known as Cheetah.
There is seemingly no end to his crazy statistical profile and, much like McCaffrey, he is one of the few who have earned our loyalty until proven otherwise.
We spend so much time trying to get ahead of physical decline — and for good reason — but there are exceptions to every rule and No. 10 on Miami is certainly one of them.
Longest WR Streaks With 25+ Fantasy Points Within a Season Since 2020
- Hill (MIA, 2023): 4
- Hill (KC, 2020): 4
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
I’d be surprised if, in four months, you look back at your fantasy season and say, “If only I had picked the other one, I would have won my league”.
Both of these stars are nothing short of elite and have a reasonable case to be the first overall selection in drafts.
That said, you’ll have to pick, and I’m siding with the week-over-week stability of McCaffrey.
His ceiling games are close enough to those of Hill, and his floor is higher at a position where a reliable baseline of production is simply more difficult to find.
Games Finishing as a Top-7 Performer at His Position, 2023
- McCaffrey: 11
- Hill: 9
Four games finishing as WR30 or worse — which doesn’t happen for a McCaffrey manager — were folded into those elite performances for Hill. This is a close call, and if you’re still on the fence about the player profiles, I’d break the tie by looking at Miami’s schedule when all of the chips will be on the line in your league.
- Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 17 at Cleveland Browns
That’s as tough as it gets and we know the road can be a difficult ask for the high-flying Fins.
Always a #FantasyFootball topic
Tagovailoa might get you Tua title game (three straight non-weather issues in Weeks 14-16) but Week 17 at CLE needs the be factored into the #FantasyFootball rankings process pic.twitter.com/twt4GTFvU4
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 15, 2024