Unfortunately for those who had the coveted 1.01 draft position in fantasy football this year, it has been anything but a good year for fantasy GMs who went with the status quo. The surefire, can’t miss, 100% play of selecting Christian McCaffrey has been anything but surefire as he has only returned a few times in an injury-filled year. Heading into Week 12, Christian McCaffrey was featured in just three games this year, but there was hope among fantasy football GMs he might return in this contest. However, he will miss his ninth game of the season in the Panthers’ trip to Minnesota.
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Head Coach Matt Rhule had been “pessimistic” about Christian McCaffrey’s return
The indications were that Week 12 would be more of the same when it came to Christian McCaffrey’s injury status. After recording a few limited participation practices this week, there was some optimism from the outside that Christian McCaffrey could return.
On Wednesday, head coach Matt Rhule said he didn’t expect McCaffrey to play but did not rule out his star running back, who was initially listed as doubtful for their game against the Minnesota Vikings.
“I’m pessimistic that he’ll play,” Rhule said after Friday’s walkthrough. “But he’s practiced well enough this week to earn the right to be listed as questionable. So we’re kind of in a wait and see mode, but I’d label myself as pessimistic about his chances of playing.”
Related | Adam Thielen Injury Update: Is he playing this week?
However, on Saturday, Tom Pelissero reported that McCaffrey would not be making the trip to Minnesota with the Panthers, ruling him out of a return in Week 12.
I can’t say it doesn’t make sense for the Panthers to sit McCaffrey. They have a Week 13 bye and sitting McCaffrey buys the team an extra two weeks of recovery. The interesting bye schedule was already a talking point before drafts the season, and traditionally, Week 13 is the final week to get into the fantasy playoffs. If you selected McCaffrey first overall, you knew your team would be out its biggest star for the most critical game of the season.
However, the counter to that argument was that you would have 12 games of his production to secure the playoffs by that point. As Lee Corso famously says, “Not so fast, my friend.”
While only playing in three games due to injury, Christian McCaffrey reminded us how special he is
To say this season has been a disappointment would be an understatement, but it is 2020, and basically, everything has been a disappointment.
After playing on 97% of his team’s offensive snaps in 2019, Christian McCaffrey was one of the safest picks you could make. A new quarterback, along with a sneaky-talented offense, led by two of the hottest college coaches making the NFL jump, seemed like a perfect scenario. Throw in a shoddy defense, and the recipe for fantasy points was sitting there for all of us.
Unfortunately, we have only seen glimmers of this dream as McCaffrey has played in only three games so far. He played in Weeks 1 and 2 and looked like the same player we knew in 2019. He carried the ball 41 times for 155 yards and caught seven of his nine targets for 67 yards while scoring four total touchdowns. He was the RB2 and RB5 in those two weeks.
The many injuries suffered by Christian McCaffrey this season
However, in Week 2, Christian McCaffrey suffered a high-ankle injury that would sideline him for six weeks, making his return in Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
McCaffrey came out and played like he never missed a step. Rushing 18 times for 69 yards and hauling in all 10 of his targets for 82 yards while scoring two total touchdowns. But injuries soon popped up again.
McCaffrey suffered a shoulder injury due to landing awkwardly while being tackled, and it has kept him out ever since. While Mike Davis has been great in this offense, it makes you wonder how good Christian McCaffrey could have been this year.
McCaffrey’s Fantasy Ranking in 2020
I also want to use McCaffrey and his injury as an example of when people use stats or end of season rankings, and they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
As of writing this article, Christian McCaffery is the RB34 in PPR for fantasy. While playing in only three games, he is an RB3. You and I both know that is not the full story. It’s the same for his average of roughly 30 fantasy points per game. We are looking at a three-game sample size. Is it wrong? No, but it needs context and to be said with the explanation that it was only in a few games.
Mike Davis is a mid to high RB2 with Christian McCaffrey unable to return
While he sits as the RB8 on the season, Mike Davis has cooled off a bit from the incredible pace he was on while filling in for Christian McCaffrey. From Weeks 3 through 5, Davis rattled off three-straight top 10 running back performances, where he totaled 351 yards and three touchdowns. From Week 6 and on, it has been a bit more difficult.
Five out of the last seven weeks have seen Davis finish as the RB20 or worse, including four games north of RB30. He has yet to rush for more than 66 yards or go over 34 yards in the air during this stretch. His touchdown in Week 11 against the Lions was his first touchdown since Week 6.
Related | Week 12 RB Rankings: Sleepers, must starts, busts
While the Vikings give up the 18th-most fantasy points to running backs (23.61), they are a difficult matchup. There have been only three running backs who have rushed for more than 75 yards against the Vikings this season, and no running back has topped 36 yards through the air against them. The Vikings have allowed only seven total touchdowns to running backs, the fifth-fewest in the league.
Mike Davis is a volume play with some upside. The full health of Teddy Bridgewater is unknown, and Davis will see between 15 and 20 touches in this game. When Davis sees 15 or more opportunities in a game (five times in 2020), he has averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game this year.
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