The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can McCaffrey dominate as we have become accustomed to, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Christian McCaffrey’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Unless you are brand new to fantasy football — which, if that’s the case, hi, it’s a pleasure to meet you, and I hope you stick around — you don’t need me to tell you that McCaffrey is in a league of his own and has been for quite some time.
Playing the first six games in 2022 with the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey averaged 21.4 opportunities and 111.7 yards with three total touchdowns. He was healthy and playing well but somewhat held back due to the state of the Panthers’ offense. That all changed when McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers.
From Weeks 8-17, McCaffrey was the RB1 in fantasy by a staggering 24 points ahead of Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler. That’s over a full game ahead of the competition. McCaffrey was also the RB1 in points per game (23.7 PPR), averaging 22.4 opportunities, 118.8 total yards, and one touchdown per game.
For context, that’s a pace of over 2,000 total yards, which would be baffling if it were anyone but McCaffrey, as we’ve seen him cross that number before. In the end, McCaffrey accounted for 1,880 total yards from scrimmage on 211 touches with 10 total TDs.
He also dominated the opportunities when he joined San Francisco, which points to his year-over-year stability. Although Elijah Mitchell dealt with a knee injury, it’s still impressive that McCaffrey accounted for 58% of the rushing attempts, 76% of the RB targets, and a 20% team target share while remaining elite in nearly every metric across the board.
He is the outlier to which you compare everyone else. That mindset also permeates into building projections as McCaffrey can and likely will surpass them no matter how seemingly high you feel like you might be.
I’m not going to discount any possibility he does begin to taper off, as McCaffrey is 28, but I have to see it first before I ever project it.
Based on my initial run of median projections, I have McCaffrey finishing as the overall RB1 with approximately 240 carries for nearly 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns while catching about 70 of his 90 targets for 645-675 yards and 4-5 more touchdowns.
If you are expecting a falloff, you’re going to need to keep waiting, as McCaffrey has the best odds of anyone to lead the RB position in 2023.
Should You Draft Christian McCaffrey This Year?
Should you draft McCaffrey for fantasy football? Well, do you like winning? That might be a bit facetious of me, but it’s not entirely untrue. When he has been healthy, no player outside of Travis Kelce has been on more championship-winning teams than McCaffrey since 2017.
He is also considered a minimum top-three option but is usually the No. 1 overall ranked player going into drafts since 2018.
That’s not changing this year either, as McCaffrey, based on initial ADP reporting, is not just the RB1 but is a coin flip with Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson for the No. 1 overall consensus ranking in drafts.
The only concern you ever have with McCaffrey is health, but after playing all last season following a change in his conditioning and strength routines, there’s no real reason for me to expect him not to do the same this year.
Even in full-PPR formats, McCaffrey has just as much of a claim to the first overall spot as Jefferson. If you have a top-two draft slot in 2023 for your redraft fantasy football leagues, the choice between McCaffrey or Jefferson yields no wrong decision.
Although I don’t know how many more years we’ll be able to enjoy McCaffrey’s excellence, 2023 looks to be another memorable season for this generation’s version of LaDainian Tomlinson.