San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey is the undisputed best player in fantasy football. He just became the first running back since Priest Holmes in 2003 to post an overall RB1 season more than once in his career.
Although he’s another year older and has a ton of mileage on him, should fantasy managers really be concerned about McCaffrey’s 2024 fantasy value?
Should You Select Christian McCaffrey at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 1st Overall (RB1)
- 2023 Recap: McCaffrey once again proved why he’s the best player in fantasy football. He averaged over 24 fantasy points per game for the third time in six seasons, totaling 1,459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, and 21 touchdowns. His production was bolstered by playing in San Francisco’s elite offense.
- Efficiency and Volume: While McCaffrey’s receiving numbers took a slight dip due to the presence of other elite playmakers on the 49ers, he still led all running backs with a 19.3% target share. His efficiency was exceptional, averaging 6.0 yards per touch and 3.8 yards created per touch.
- 2024 Outlook: McCaffrey remains the undisputed RB1 in fantasy football. Although he’s now 28 years old with nearly 2,000 career touches, there are no signs of decline. His role in the 49ers’ offense and his proven ability to produce at an elite level make him the top pick in fantasy drafts.
- Injury Concerns: While McCaffrey’s injury history in 2020 and 2021 may raise concerns, he has been healthy for the past two seasons. Predicting injuries is impossible, and fading McCaffrey based on injury risk alone is not a sound strategy.
- ADP Value: McCaffrey is being drafted as the 1st overall pick, reflecting his status as the best player in fantasy football. There is no argument for selecting any other running back over McCaffrey, and he should be the first player taken in drafts.
- Final Verdict: McCaffrey is the clear choice as the first overall pick in fantasy drafts. His combination of talent, opportunity, and proven production makes him the safest and most valuable player to build your fantasy team around.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Christian McCaffrey
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
1) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
2) Christian McCaffrey, RB | San Francisco 49ers
3) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
4) Bijan Robinson, RB | Atlanta Falcons
5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
McCaffrey’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
What really needs to be said about the best player in fantasy?
For the third time in the past six seasons, McCaffrey averaged over 24 fantasy points per game in a full season. Not surprisingly, going from a bad Carolina Panthers offense to an elite 49ers team has been great for McCaffrey’s fantasy value.
Last season, the 49ers’ RB carried the ball 272 times for 1,459 yards while adding 67 receptions for 564 receiving yards. Playing on San Francisco’s elite offense, McCaffrey scored a whopping 21 touchdowns. Meanwhile, his rushing and scoring numbers were both career highs.
Christian McCaffrey makes it a one-point game for the #49ers with his 21st TD of the season ‼️ pic.twitter.com/q00hrrLaw6
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 26, 2023
If there is one knock on McCaffrey’s production while in San Francisco, it’s his receiving. He hasn’t gotten worse as a pass catcher — far from it. It’s just when you play on a team with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, targets aren’t exactly going to be funneled to the running back.
Even so, McCaffrey’s 19.3% target share was tops in the league. This is just a low-volume passing attack. Despite the cliché nature of the phrase, there are, in fact, too many mouths to feed.
Fortunately, in an offense that hums like the 49ers’, McCaffrey can make up for any lack of volume with efficiency. Last season, he averaged 6.0 yards per touch (third in the NFL), 3.8 yards created per touch (13th), and an impressive 7.4% of his carries went for 15+ yards.
Is McCaffrey a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Fantasy managers can and should have zero concerns about McCaffrey’s effectiveness. With that said, it’s at least worth considering that he is 28 years old with 1,948 career touches.
McCaffrey has a shade under 800 touches over the past two seasons, both of which saw him play more games than he ever did in Carolina due to the 49ers actually being able to advance deep into the postseason.
There’s also the matter of his preseason calf injury, which is being described as minor, and not a concern for his Week 1 availability. McCaffrey won’t play in the preseason, but it’s not as if the injury has anything to do with it — he wasn’t playing in the preseason anyway.
Fantasy managers may recall McCaffrey suffered a similar injury in Week 17 of last season. He sat out a meaningless Week 18 game, had the week off for the team’s bye, and was fine for the remainder of the postseason. The calf is not a reason to fade McCaffrey.
In fact, there’s no tangible reason to fade McCaffrey. We’ve seen exactly zero signs of decline. There’s also no argument for any running back other than McCaffrey as the overall RB1.
If McCaffrey fails, it will be because of injury. But we can’t predict that. Those fading him last year tried and likely went with the “safer” route of WRs like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase. How’d that work out?
Outside of those two years in 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey has been healthy his entire career. The reality is football is a violent game where players get hurt. It’s going to happen again this year. If it does, that’s just bad luck.
All we can do is take the best players at every possible pick. From the moment your fantasy draft starts, McCaffrey is the best player.