The San Francisco 49ers‘ decision to acquire RB Christian McCaffrey for a multitude of draft assets prior to the 2022 NFL trade deadline has paid huge dividends both for the franchise and fantasy managers alike.
Fresh off of the second RB1 overall finish of his NFL career, should McCaffrey be the unquestioned No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football drafts in 2024?
Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The term “league-winner” is used frequently in fantasy football. Yet, very few players who actually deserve this title are properly awarded this distinction.
McCaffrey’s 2,023 total yards and 21 touchdowns from scrimmage this past year made him the runaway top overall RB in fantasy football this season by a wide margin, which makes him one of the few players qualified for this high praise.
Christian McCaffrey makes it a one-point game for the #49ers with his 21st TD of the season ‼️ pic.twitter.com/q00hrrLaw6
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 26, 2023
Sure, his reception totals weren’t quite as staggering as his 116 receptions for 1,005 receiving yards back in 2019, but his 391.3 fantasy points in full-PPR formats were 100.8 points more than the RB2 overall (Breece Hall), which is an absurdly wide gap when you consider that the gap between the QB1, WR1, and TE1 to the QB2, WR2, and TE2 is just 74.8 fantasy points combined.
McCaffrey may be turning 28 before the start of the upcoming season, but a quick look back at his 2023 production shows that he has shown no signs of slowing down.
2023 Notable Stats
- Yards Per Carry: 5.36 (career high)
- Total Touchdowns: 21 (tied for most in the NFL)
- Total Touches: 339 (led the NFL)
- Rushing Yards After Contact: 573 (led the NFL)
- Receptions: 67 (third most at RB position)
- Runs of 50+ Yards: Three (tied for most in the NFL)
For those of you who wonder if this was potentially a one-year wonder in a 49ers uniform, now is a great time to remind you McCaffrey averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game after joining the San Francisco backfield in Week 7 of 2022 through the rest of that season, which was good for RB1 overall during that span.
The fact that McCaffrey is competing with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and the team’s first-round pick Ricky Pearsall for targets in an offense that ranked 30th in pass attempts per game last year is the only thing keeping it remotely close for other fantasy backs coming anywhere close to this level of production.
McCaffrey haters may be quick to point out that he still missed 23 games over his final two years with the Carolina Panthers, but he has shown no injury concerns since joining the 49ers. Injuries are a part of football.
To be fair to some of those durability concerns, McCaffrey did pick up a calf strain this training camp, but all reports suggest he should be a full go for the season opener.
If you pass on McCaffrey at No. 1 overall in your fantasy draft because you are afraid he might get hurt or are projecting Father Time to start tapping his shoulder out of nowhere this year, then you are probably only hurting your own chances of winning.
There are only so many ways to say that McCaffrey is as excellent as advertised, but one additional way is to acknowledge that his current ADP is No. 1 overall.
McCaffrey’s elite fantasy production during his time with the Niners, coupled with a roster that saw very few changes from the one that went to the Super Bowl last year, means we can reasonably expect him to be a top producer at the RB position this upcoming season.
Other backs like Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Kyren Williams may have cases to be the RB1 overall, but McCaffrey is the right choice at the top of every fantasy draft in 2024.
McCaffrey’s 2024 Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 439.9 (341.2 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1509.3
- Rushing Touchdowns: 10.1
- Receptions: 98.7
- Receiving Yards: 871.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 6.0