After finishing the year as the RB1 overall for the second time in his NFL career, Christian McCaffrey has cemented himself as an elite fantasy football running back in dynasty formats.
Despite finishing as a top-two RB in both seasons in a San Francisco 49ers uniform, how does McCaffrey’s age start to impact his fantasy value in dynasty leagues heading into 2024?
Christian McCaffrey’s Dynasty Outlook
Exceptional greatness tends to supersede the traditional age cliffs we’ve come to expect in the world of fantasy football.
The dynasty market for a 27-year-old running back — even one as great as McCaffrey — is normally pretty limited to teams in contention for a league championship because of how quickly drops in efficiency and production come at this position.
However, his elite, league-winning production in this explosive 49ers offense still makes him an incredibly valuable asset, even at his advanced age.
The age cliff — while certainly valid and backed up with plenty of data in recent years — simply doesn’t apply to all running backs.
When you take a closer look at McCaffrey’s advanced analytical numbers from last season, they actually suggest he may be getting even better.
2023 Notable Stats
- Yards Per Carry: 5.36 (career high)
- Total Touchdowns: 21 (tied for most in the NFL)
- Total Touches: 339 (led the NFL)
- Rushing Yards After Contact: 573 (led the NFL)
- Receptions: 67 (third most at RB position)
- Runs of 50+ Yards: 3 (tied for most in the NFL)
By nearly every rushing metric, McCaffrey is in a tier all of his own at the RB position at this very moment. From a dynasty standpoint, there’s a case to be made that he’s more valuable over the next year and a half than any other player in all of fantasy football. The only thing preventing him from completely breaking fantasy football leagues is his drop in target volume in comparison to his best years in Carolina.
The fact McCaffrey is competing with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle for targets in an offense that ranked 30th in pass attempts per game last year is the only thing keeping it remotely close for other fantasy backs coming anywhere close to his level of production.
Sure, dynasty managers in the midst of a rebuild shouldn’t prioritize acquiring McCaffrey due to his age. Nevertheless, his elite production still makes him a top fantasy asset for the foreseeable future.
McCaffrey’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does McCaffrey land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring where McCaffrey lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Breece Hall | NYJ
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Kyren Williams | LAR
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) James Cook | BUF
12) De’Von Achane | MIA
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Tyjae Spears | TEN
17) Josh Jacobs | LV
18) Austin Ekeler | LAC
19) D’Andre Swift | PHI
20) Tony Pollard | DAL
Should You Trade McCaffrey in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading McCaffrey? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
When you are arguably one of the top dynasty assets in all of fantasy football, there is only one direction your fantasy value has left to go… down.
The data suggests that once running backs reach the age of 29, the likelihood of a player producing an RB1 fantasy season (top-12 finish at the position) drops below 10%. McCaffrey is set to turn 28 this summer.
McCaffrey’s 2,023 total yards and 21 touchdowns from scrimmage this year have made him the runaway top overall running back in fantasy in 2023 by a wide margin, but no player remains an elite fantasy producer forever.
There is no doubt that the veteran RB is positioned for another potentially great fantasy season in 2024 in this high-powered 49ers offense, with his all-purpose skill set being used perfectly by head coach Kyle Shanahan, and his exceptional burst and agility still very much intact.
However, his age and past durability concerns — where he played just 10 games over a two-year stretch due to injuries — could instantly alter McCaffrey’s fantasy value drastically at any point over the next couple of seasons.
The next time the bottom falls out on McCaffrey’s dynasty value, there’s no guarantee it will ever get this high again. If you’re a struggling roster that needs to recoup some draft capital ammo to help bolster a dynasty rebuild, McCaffrey is the perfect sell-high asset to quickly help you retool your team.
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Yes, selling McCaffrey high may not be the best individual move for every dynasty manager. But if there’s a player to trade at his peak, then the talented Niners’ RB fits the bill.
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