Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk missed five games a season ago and had to adjust to the addition of Calvin Ridley, but he’s healthy now and could well be the team’s top target from Day 1.
It wasn’t long ago that Kirk racked up 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns on 84 catches. Could a similar stat line be in store for him and his fantasy football managers in 2024?
Christian Kirk’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 231 (147 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 84
- Receiving Yards: 1,104
- Receiving TDs: 6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Kirk This Year?
Everyone builds out their fantasy football roster differently in the middle rounds. Do you prefer to chase upside? How do you feel about locking in a stable role? Is it time to address the onesie positions?
There’s no right or wrong way to do it depending on what makes you most comfortable, but Kirk certainly fits some builds better than others.
With Ridley now the lead receiver with the Tennessee Titans, Kirk has every opportunity to lead Jacksonville receivers in targets, catches, and fantasy production.
Christian Kirk needs just 979 receiving yards in 2024 to leap from 17th to 4th in #Jaguars History.
Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, and Marcedes Lewis have the Top-3 spots secured.
pic.twitter.com/c8NDokCPw8— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) June 23, 2024
For me, his skill set is optimal in Round 5 if you take on some risk with your first four picks. I’d be shocked if Kirk (ADP: WR30) returned WR1 or even high-level WR2 numbers in 2024, but I’d be equally surprised if he didn’t post Flex-worthy numbers.
In back-to-back-to-back-to-back seasons, Kirk has produced fantasy production over the expectations created by his type of target. That speaks to his skill set and viable floor, which shined through last season.
2023 Fantasy Production to Expectation
- Kirk: +6.6%
- Calvin Ridley: -7.7%
This time last season, we were being asked to spend a second-round pick on Trevor Lawrence’s WR1, a price that simply left no room for upside. Kirk is the betting favorite to fill that role this season (career-best 2.08 yards per route run last season, a 16.2% increase from his first season with the Jaguars), and he’s coming off the board at a very digestible spot.
In his range are receivers like Tank Dell and Keenan Allen, two very talented options, but two players who figure to have plenty of peaks and valleys in the target department.
Dell is likely to be behind both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs this season, and while Allen could be the Chicago Bears WR1, would it surprise you if he was the third option just as often?
KEEP READING: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Kirk should see his 7-10 targets on a consistent basis, and every metric in his advanced profile suggests he will turn those opportunities into a high-floor season with a few monster weeks.
I like Kirk to lead this receiver room in fantasy points, but I’m equally as interested in rookie Brian Thomas Jr. at a 50-pick discount. The shine is off of this offense after the steam it received last summer, and I’m happy to buy the dip in various spots. Trevor Lawrence is a quarterback I trust to offer up high-quality targets all season long, and I want exposure after a down year.