Christian Kirk’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk was essentially the key to his team’s passing attack last season. With free agency being quite kind to his fantasy football value, how should dynasty managers handle Kirk going forward?

Christian Kirk’s Dynasty Outlook

It feels like Kirk has been in the NFL forever. But despite entering his seventh professional season, he’ll turn just 28 years old in 2024.

Christian Kirk has 40 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2021 season — 10th-most among NFL WRs (via @IE_NFL). pic.twitter.com/LlagFTwVSL

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2023

Since his debut in 2018, Kirk has been a relevant fantasy asset. He’s averaged double-digit fantasy points every year of his career. Outside of 2022, though, he hasn’t really been an impact player. Still, he’s always been worth rostering.

Kirk’s best season coming in 2022 wasn’t much of a surprise. It was the year he left Arizona to sign with the Jaguars as a free agent for what was viewed as an exorbitant contract. Thus, the term “Christian Kirk money” was coined.

Regardless of what anyone thought of Kirk’s contract, he was brought in to be their WR1. And a WR1 he was (in real life). He may have been a WR2 in fantasy, averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game, but his 84 catches for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns were the best marks on the Jaguars and of his career.

Heading into 2023, though, Kirk’s dynasty value had taken a bit of a hit. Although Kirk played well the year prior, he still doesn’t profile as an NFL team’s WR1. The Jaguars wanted someone who fit that archetype. As a result, they traded for Calvin Ridley and installed him as their X-receiver.

Despite Kirk’s quality play, he opened the season playing almost exclusively in three-receiver sets, as Zay Jones was the guy lining up opposite Ridley in two-receiver sets.

Unfortunately for Jones, he got hurt early in the season, forcing Kirk back into a starting role in two-receiver sets. Combine that with the fact that Ridley was very much not the same player during his prime in Atlanta, and Kirk remained Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target.

With that said, Kirk did see a decline in production. His target share dropped to just 20.8% and was targeted on 22.9% of his routes run, a slight tick down from the previous season.

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Kirk remained efficient, posting an impressive 2.12 yards-per-route-run number, 19th in the league. However, he’s never going to be a guy consistently used downfield. Kirk’s 9.9 aDOT (average depth of target) was 0.5 yards greater than the year prior but still was just 66th in the NFL.

Last season, Kirk averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR33. He also saw his season cut short due to a core injury that required surgery, costing him the final five games of the season. Those were his first games missed since 2020.

Kirk’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Kirk sit in the dynasty WR landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Kirk lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
6) Puka Nacua | LAR
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Tyreek Hill | MIA
9) Malik Nabers | FA
10) Drake London | ATL
11) A.J. Brown | PHI
12) Chris Olave | NO
13) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
14) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
15) Rome Odunze | FA
16) Rashee Rice | KC
17) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
18) DJ Moore | CHI
19) DK Metcalf | SEA
20) DeVonta Smith | PHI
21) Tank Dell | HOU
22) Nico Collins | HOU
23) Tee Higgins | CIN
24) Zay Flowers | BAL

25) Jordan Addison | MIN
26) Brian Thomas Jr. | FA
27) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Jayden Reed | GB
30) Davante Adams | LV
31) Amari Cooper | CLE
32) Mike Evans | TB
33) Christian Kirk | JAX
34) Xavier Worthy | FA
35) Marquise Brown | KC
36) Diontae Johnson | CAR
37) Cooper Kupp | LAR
38) George Pickens | PIT
39) Troy Franklin | FA
40) Terry McLaurin | WAS
41) Chris Godwin | TB
42) Keenan Allen | CHI
43) Calvin Ridley | TEN
44) Stefon Diggs | BUF
45) Josh Downs | IND
46) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
47) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
48) Adonai Mitchell | FA

Should You Trade Kirk in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Kirk? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!

For years, the Arizona Cardinals grossly misused Kirk, opting to make him primarily an outside receiver when that wasn’t his strength. The Jaguars corrected that.

If Kirk can maintain his role in the slot, his skill set is one that should age quite well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he had at least another five very good years ahead of him.

Dynasty managers need not concern themselves about getting rid of Kirk before he falls off a cliff. That cliff is a long ways away.

Kirk is signed through the next two seasons. He’ll be 29 years old when he hits free agency again, and it’s impossible to predict anything beyond that. All we can do is deal with what we know, which is that Kirk will have two more years in Jacksonville with Lawrence.

I’m not Lawrence’s biggest fan, viewing him more as an above-average quarterback than anywhere near the conversation of guys like Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. But Lawrence and Kirk mesh well. It’s clear Lawrence trusts him, and I don’t expect that to change.

The Jaguars also clearly wanted Ridley to be their alpha WR1. Unfortunately, I don’t believe he has those skills anymore. Ridley flashed at times last season but was very inconsistent. He mostly struggled to get open and fell well short of dominating on the outside as the Jaguars hoped he would.

Now, Ridley is gone, opting to sign with the Tennessee Titans for an amount of money I’m confident they will regret less than a month into the 2024 season. To replace Ridley, the Jaguars brought in Gabe Davis.

While Davis is obviously not a WR1, he does fit that stretch-Z role perfectly. He can line up outside and occasionally make big plays downfield. Most importantly for Kirk, he’s the farthest thing from a threat to his target share.

I hate how low I have Kirk ranked, but there are just so many young, talented WRs in the NFL right now. He’s a sneaky-good fantasy asset, and one I believe to be a bit undervalued.

I don’t see Kirk being relegated to playing in only three-receiver sets again. That means he can hit the ground running in 2024.

KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024

Kirk is the type of guy contending teams can trade for to get that extra solid piece for that championship push. But he’s also worth acquiring for rebuilding teams as a sneaky, cheaper, older asset that still has plenty of tread left on his tires.