Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk was supposed to fall behind Calvin Ridley in the target hierarchy last season. However, the incumbent was the more productive and effective receiver, both in real life and fantasy football. With Ridley’s status currently a question mark, should fantasy managers be targeting Kirk in Best Ball drafts?
Christian Kirk’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Ahead of the 2022 season, the Jaguars gave Kirk a contract pretty much everyone thought was excessive. Thus, the term “Christian Kirk money” was coined. He had to really step his game up to be anywhere near worth that contract. To Kirk’s credit, though, he did just that.
Kirk had the best season of his career, catching 84 passes for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR18.
While Kirk proved every bit capable of being Trevor Lawrence’s top target, the Jaguars traded for Calvin Ridley during the 2022 season. Naturally, this lowered Kirk’s value heading into the 2023 season, as Ridley was expected to be the WR1.
Due to his depressed ADP, Kirk wound up being a pretty good value last season. He did regress a bit, averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game, but a lot of that had to do with his quarterback. Kirk still averaged an impressive 2.12 yards per route run, 19th in the league.
Although Ridley did not play nearly as well as expected, his presence was still a problem for Kirk’s volume. Kirk’s target share dropped from 23.2% to 20.8%, and his targets per route run rate went from 25.7% to 22.9%.
Should You Draft Kirk in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Now that we’ve established Kirk is still very good at football, the biggest remaining question is whether his volume can return to 2022 levels. That will come down to what the Jaguars elect to do at wide receiver.
They are undoubtedly going to sign or draft someone of relevance. But will they bring Ridley back, potentially relegating Kirk to the same role he had last season? Or will they sign someone who is perceived as more of a WR2 or WR3, elevating Kirk back to the top spot in the hierarchy?
Perhaps more important than the quality of receiver is the type of receiver, though. Kirk thrives the most when he can operate from the slot. A big part of his struggles in Arizona during his rookie contract was the team’s refusal to move him inside.
The Jaguars remedied that, having him run 52% of his routes from the slot in 2022 and 67% in 2023.
Both Ridley and Kirk are priced next to each other, just inside the top 36 WRs. That tells us fantasy managers in early Best Ball drafts aren’t quite sure what’s going to happen.
If you’re drafting now, I would definitely be taking shots at Kirk. He’s finished no lower than WR33 each of the past three seasons. Even if the Jaguars re-sign Ridley, at worst, Kirk should be what he was last season. That means he’s being drafted at his floor.
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If the Jaguars end up going into the season with Kirk as their best receiver, his ADP will rise, and those who drafted him early will have gotten great value. Either way, there’s not much downside in getting Ridley on a few teams before this murky situation clears up.