Fantasy football managers who drafted Chris Olave last season simultaneously got what they paid for but were also slightly disappointed. He ascended but not fully. Now entering his third season, can the New Orleans Saints WR take the leap into the ranks of the WR1s?
Chris Olave’s Fantasy Forecast
Before we talk about Olave, we must first discuss Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. This may seem random and unconnected, but I promise it will make sense.
The Colts’ WR1 was “my guy” in 2022. I drafted him in as many leagues as possible. While I nailed the elite volume projection, poor quarterback play resulted in Pittman providing a negative return on investment. Simply put, he was a bad pick.
In 2023, Pittman’s ADP was a good four rounds lower than it was in 2022. Yet, I did not chase the volume, despite the fact that there really was no way Pittman could fail. At worst, he would provide par value. Instead, Pittman wound up being one of the best picks of the season.
While I was ignoring Pittman, I had set my sights on a new “my guy” — Olave. He established himself as the Saints’ clear WR1, catching 87 passes for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns. Olave averaged a respectable 14.5 fantasy points per game.
Much like Pittman the year before, he was good, but he wasn’t great. And much like Pittman in 2022, I believe I was a year early. While Olave’s ADP has not plummeted the way Pittman’s did, I will not make the same mistake twice.
Olave may have “only” averaged 14.5 points per game, but he should’ve been way better. There’s room for Olave’s 25.2% target share to improve. He already averaged 2.08 yards per route run, 21st in the league.
Olave’s 8.1 yards per target was far worse, but that was largely due to him and QB Derek Carr being unable to connect frequently on deep throws.
Olave was third in the league with over 1,000 unrealized air yards. He saw over 30 deep targets, the fourth most in the league, he just didn’t catch many of them. Olave left at least 3-4 long touchdowns on the field.
All it would’ve taken was for two of those missed connections to land and we’re talking about Olave as a WR1, and likely in the same breath as guys like Garrett Wilson and Drake London, both of whom have never come close to producing like Olave did last season.
There is still progression baked into Olave’s price. He’s going as the WR11, No. 24 overall, and I have no problem paying this price.
Last season, Olave was typically going off the board in the late second/early third round. He should be going around that range once again, maybe a little bit earlier.
Even if Olave does nothing other than score a couple more touchdowns, that would be enough to get him about at par value relative to his ADP. But if he can improve slightly on his 25.2% target share, as well as develop a better connection with Carr, we could be looking at 17-18 points per game. Olave is my WR11 and once again someone I am targeting in fantasy drafts.
