Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver situation was no longer 1a/1b. Mike Evans soared past Chris Godwin as the clear alpha, relegating the latter to an underused WR2. Under a new offensive coordinator, can Godwin bounce back this season? What does his fantasy football projection look like?
Chris Godwin’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.4
- Receptions: 88
- Receiving Yards: 974
- Receiving TDs: 3.2
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Godwin This Year?
We saw Godwin operate as the clear WR2 behind Evans, and it was nowhere near equal. To justify Godwin as a worthwhile target this season, fantasy managers must be able to point to something that will change from last year.
Godwin’s target share actually ticked up from 21.8% to 23.8%, which is usually a positive sign. However, the massive overall decrease in passing volume going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield resulted in fewer total targets. As a result, Godwin went from 14.9 fantasy points per game to 12.3, his lowest number since 2018.
At first glance, it’s hard to figure out. Sure, the volume dipped a bit, but it’s not as if his numbers were that different. In fact, Godwin’s yards per reception spiked from 9.8 to 12.3. So, can we figure out what happened? Actually, we can!
Three things contributed to Godwin’s 2023 struggles. We’ll start with the lowest-hanging fruit: touchdowns.
For all of Godwin’s issues, he still amassed over 1,000 receiving yards. However, he only scored two times. Based on his receiving-yardage total, his expected touchdown number was around six.
The second issue for Godwin kind of bleeds into the third. As bad as Brady was in 2022, he was still able to deliver catchable targets to Godwin, who ranked top 10 in that department. Last season, Godwin’s catchable target rate fell outside the top 50. But it wasn’t entirely Mayfield’s fault.
In 2022, Godwin ran 57.6% of his routes from the slot. In fact, dating back to 2019, his slot rate has been over 50% every year of his career. Last season, he was there just 32.1% of the time.
Bucs OC Dave Canales, the architect behind moving Godwin outside, is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. Enter Liam Coen, who spent time with Sean McVay and the Rams, plus made Will Levis look like a competent passer at Kentucky.
Coen compared Godwin’s role to what he did with Cooper Kupp in Los Angeles. Head coach Todd Bowles also expressed his desire to see Godwin move back inside more. Everything we’re hearing out of Tampa points to Godwin going back to where he thrives, which bodes extremely well for his 2024 outlook.
I have Godwin projected for a 22.5% target share, but I also have his catch rate rebounding to 70%. That gives us a player who is projected to catch 91 passes for 1,001 yards and 5.0 touchdowns.
Godwin’s 12.98 fantasy points per game average puts him at a WR34 projection, which is right where he lands in the PFN consensus projections. Most importantly, both sets of projections have at or slightly above his WR34 ADP.
Godwin may be an older WR, but he’s still just 28. There are a couple of years of his prime remaining. This isn’t a declining player. Rather, this is a player who was not used properly in 2023 — which appears to be presenting us with a buying opportunity.
I have Godwin ranked as my WR36, but in my projections, there’s very little separating him from the WR27. There’s strong WR2 upside here. Don’t dismiss Godwin as your WR3 or WR4 in fantasy drafts.