The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ surprising offensive production last season was largely due to the connection between quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans. Yet, Chris Godwin quietly topped 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards for a third straight year in this same exact offense.
Is Godwin a severely underappreciated fantasy football asset heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select Chris Godwin at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 77th Overall (WR36)
- Underrated 2023 Production: Despite falling from a top-20 WR finish in the previous two seasons to WR29 in 2023, Godwin still posted solid numbers with 83 receptions for 1,024 yards on 130 targets. All three of these marks ranked inside the top 25 among wide receivers, making his drop in fantasy rankings a bit overblown.
- Touchdown Regression: The biggest disappointment in Godwin’s 2023 season was his two receiving touchdowns, his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2017. Despite this, he remained heavily involved in the Buccaneers’ offense, and his target share suggests he’s poised for positive TD regression in 2024.
- Potential Role in 2024: Godwin’s move back to the slot, where he’s had his best fantasy seasons, could boost his production in 2024. His consistent target volume (100+ targets projected) and established connection with Baker Mayfield offer him legitimate WR2 upside.
- Red Zone Opportunity: Godwin’s usage in the red zone last year (17 targets, tied for 19th in the league) indicates potential for a bounce-back in touchdown production. His inefficiency in the red zone in 2023 was an anomaly, and improvement in this area could lead to a significant fantasy boost.
- Secure Role Despite Competition: While the arrival of rookie Jalen McMillan could slightly impact Godwin’s target share, his established role in the Buccaneers’ offense remains secure. Godwin’s consistent production and experience make him a reliable option heading into 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Godwin’s current ADP of WR36 in the seventh round places him alongside players like Calvin Ridley, Jayden Reed, and Hollywood Brown. Given his reliable floor and potential for top-20 production with positive TD regression, Godwin offers excellent draft value.
- Final Verdict: Godwin remains a highly dependable fantasy option, even in a “down” year. His ability to deliver 130 targets, 80+ receptions, and 1,000+ yards should not be overlooked. At his current ADP, Godwin presents a great draft-day value with a strong chance to outperform expectations in 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Chris Godwin
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Godwin is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
31) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
32) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
33) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
34) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Jayden Reed, WR | Green Bay Packers
36) Chris Godwin, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
Chris Godwin’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
It could be easy to view Godwin’s 2023 season as a disappointment after finishing as a top-20 WR for two straight seasons. Yet, his plummet all the way to WR29 last year may be a bit overblown.
Godwin caught just 83 passes for 1,024 yards on 130 targets last year. All three of those marks ranked inside the top 25 amongst wide receivers. It was really Godwin’s two touchdowns — which was his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2017 — that felt like the biggest disappointment last season.
If you couldn’t tell, there’s a touch of sarcastic exaggeration when I use the word “plummet” to describe Godwin’s production in 2023. He was still a useful fantasy asset who managed to finish strong last year.
I’ve yet to hear an argument where Godwin isn’t still slated to see 100+ targets in 2024. A potential move back to the slot on a full-time basis, which is where he’s done his best fantasy work during his career, should help give him legit WR2 upside this upcoming season.
One noteworthy observation we could take from Godwin’s 2023 usage that suggests a potential bump in receiving touchdowns this upcoming year was his heavy utilization in the red zone in his first year with Mayfield under center. Godwin finished tied for 19th in the league with 17 red-zone targets but managed to catch just five of them for one score.
Sure, the efficiency was awful. Yet, a player with Godwin’s sustained fantasy production feels like a bounce-back campaign isn’t too farfetched.
In fact, those inefficient numbers in the red zone echo Godwin’s weird regression in the TD department as a whole. He was the only player to see more than 110 targets and not score at least three touchdowns in 2023.
The roles of other receivers — namely, the arrival of Tampa Bay’s third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Jalen McMillan — could expand and eat into Godwin’s target share. But I’m leaning more towards his role still being secure in 2024, which makes him a nice discounted option on draft day.
Is Godwin a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Godwin’s ADP is currently sitting at No. 77 overall (WR36 off the board). This puts him in the same range as Calvin Ridley, Jayden Reed, and Hollywood Brown.
If you’re looking for a player with a reliable floor who could realistically slide back inside the top 20 at the position with some positive TD regression, then Godwin feels like the pick.
Even in a down year, Godwin was still a top-30 fantasy WR with 130 targets, 80+ receptions, and 1,000+ yards receiving. Those aren’t easy numbers to hit.
Godwin’s age shouldn’t concern anyone about a steep decline in production coming this year. He represents a very nice draft-day value at a reduced price in 2024.