With fantasy football championships on the line, Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin needs to have a great game in Week 16. After struggling for yardage in the last few games, Godwin’s touchdown in Week 15 could be the boost he needs. What should we expect from Chris Godwin today against the Detroit Lions with hardware on the line?
Chris Godwin scores for the first time since Week 11 on Sunday
Chris Godwin found himself back into the end zone on Sunday.
His touchdown reception was his fourth of his injury-shortened season. With both Mike Evans and Antonio Brown on the field, Chris Godwin didn’t rack up the yardage, with just 36 yards on four receptions from five targets. Those five targets tied for fourth on the team behind Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski.
This has been a theme since the Buccaneers’ bye week. Over the last two games, Godwin has a combined six receptions on eight targets for 61 yards. Averaging 9.1 PPR points during this stretch has Godwin coming in as the WR48 in fantasy scoring.
However, it is not entirely doom and gloom for the Penn State product. His 13.6 PPR points in Week 16 was the fourth time in the last five games that Chris Godwin has scored double-digit fantasy points.
Godwin is finally healthy to end the season
During their Week 13 bye, Chris Godwin underwent a procedure to remove 10 pins from his left index finger. He had been playing with them in place since Week 9. Godwin suffered a broken finger making a touchdown catch against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 7 and missed just one game. However, hand procedures have likely affected Godwin’s ability to be productive.
Overall, he has missed four games this season. Week 2 with a concussion, Weeks 4 and 5 while recovering from a hamstring pull, and Week 8 due to the broken finger.
While health is not the issue, the concerted effort to get Mike Evans involved, plus the addition of Antonio Brown and his play in recent weeks, have cut into Chris Godwin’s fantasy ceiling for Week 16.
Tom Brady is spreading the ball around, and Antonio Brown is seeing consistent looks each week
We are seeing on the field why the Buccaneers signed Brown in Week 7 and how powerful this aerial attack can be. It’s what allowed them to come back from a 24-7 deficit with 7:34 left to play in the 3rd quarter. Granted, it was the Atlanta Falcons who are absolute professionals at blowing games to a level that makes Anthony Lynn jealous.
On Sunday, Brown caught his first touchdown pass of the season. It was his first since Week 1 of the 2019 season. His 46-yard TD capped off the comeback on a beautiful ball from Brady.
Sunday was Brown’s first game over 70 yards receiving since joining the team. He ended the day seeing seven targets, catching five for 93 yards and the TD. Since heading to Tampa Bay, Brown has seen 41 targets, catching 30 for 310 yards and one TD. Those targets have been eating into the looks for Chris Godwin in recent weeks.
There has been a focus to get Mike Evans involved when healthy
Mike Evans has been the leading receiver for the Buccaneers all season. He leads the team in targets (93), receptions (57), yards (779), and touchdowns (11).
Evans led the team on Sunday with 110 yards on six receptions and seven targets. All after being questionable to play during the week with a mixed bag of practice statuses.
The Buccaneers need Mike Evans to play due to his field-stretching ability. Since 2018, Evans ranks fourth in yards per reception (minimum 100 catches) with 16.4. That number is down to 13.7 in 2020 (21st).
I bring all of these players up because what happens is they take away from each other’s ceilings.
Their last five games side by side
- Mike Evans – 41 targets, 23 receptions, 342 yards, four touchdowns
- Antonio Brown – 36 targets, 27 receptions, 279 yards, one touchdown
- Chris Godwin – 33 targets, 27 receptions, 303 yards, two touchdowns
From a fantasy standpoint, Evans is the WR28 (15.4 PPR), Godwin is the WR33 (13.5 PPR), and Brown is the WR45 (11.8).
Throw in Rob Gronkowski and his 14 receptions, 213 yards, and two TDs, and it’s hard for any one player to have astonishing performances. However, that might not be an issue this week.
Chris Godwin is a solid WR2 for fantasy in Week 16 that could have a big day
21 receptions (77% completion percentage), 273 yards, three touchdowns, and 463 total yards of offense. That is what the Detroit Lions just allowed to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15. While getting run over by Derrick Henry, they let Ryan Tannehill eviscerate them through the air.
The Lions defense by the numbers
The Detroit Lions are allowing 41.59 fantasy points per game, fourth-highest in the NFL. They are 32nd in yards per target (9.52) and 24th in yards per receptions (13.35). The Lions are 32nd in fantasy points allowed per target (1.38) but are 19th in points per reception at 2.85. That is mainly because the Lions are 15th in TDs allowed, with 14 in 2020.
Tampa is relatively balanced from a play-calling aspect (52/48). Although it’s hard to imagine they won’t have a field day against this secondary.
Godwin’s upside
For Chris Godwin, he has the best matchup of the trio and should put up an outstanding fantasy performance in Week 16. Playing out of the slot, he will be guarded by CB Justin Coleman. Primarily a slot corner (78% of coverage), he allows the third-highest catch rate of qualified DBs at 83% and 0.27 fantasy points per route covered.
Play Chris Godwin as a solid fantasy WR2 in Week 16 with a great shot to score over 15 PPR points. I won’t be surprised if he has his best game of the season when it matters for us the most.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering fantasy football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.