The transition to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield was projected to be a major step backward for the Buccaneers’ offense, but, as a whole, they exceeded expectations.
Chris Godwin’s dynasty fantasy football ranking hinges on what version of him you believe in — the one that ended 2023 with the type of volume we’ve become accustomed to or the early season one that struggled to produce numbers that even remotely resembled a viable option?
Chris Godwin’s Dynasty Outlook
In his age-27 season, Godwin led the Buccaneers in receptions with 83, a stat that sounds better than it is, as his per-game catch production dropped by 30% from the two seasons prior.
#Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin had 14 receptions on 3rd down in the last 8 weeks of the 2022 regular season.
With ice in his veins, he makes another one to put the #Vikings away! 🥶
pic.twitter.com/jC8iSxgbNW— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 10, 2023
It was pretty clear that this offense would function differently sans QB Tom Brady, and while that hurt Godwin’s final stat line, the progression throughout the season was encouraging for dynasty managers and makes him an interesting trade chip as we near the 2024 season.
In 2023, his average depth of target (aDOT) rose by 57.4% from 2022. Combining that with a different signal-caller and his slow start to the season makes sense — we just didn’t think the adjustment period would last over three months (two top-25 finishes through Week 14).
That said, the volume did eventually tick up, and that is enough to have fantasy football managers intrigued by what the next few seasons could bring. Of course, Mike Evans is going to continue to demand a high target share and hold much of the scoring equity. That needs to be weighed, but should not result in crossing off Godwin when it comes to assets of interest.
Over the final month of the season, Godwin averaged 9.0 targets per game, a rate that ranked him ahead of Chicago Bears WR DJ Moore, Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua, Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown, and then Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs. That’s pretty strong usage and given the style in which this offense wants to play, there’s enough food at the table for Godwin to feast should his connection with Mayfield continue to improve.
He had a 20+ yard reception in four of those five games and cleared 75 yards in three straight (Weeks 1-13: two games with 75+ yards) — those targets weren’t of the empty calorie variety, there was some substance to the volume.
We say it all the time, “development isn’t linear.” That sentiment is typically used when it comes to assessing rookies, but when a slot receiver is asked to adjust to an offense that saw its aDOT spike by 24.6% from the season prior, a learning curve is to be expected.
Godwin has now proved the ability to succeed with varying styles of QB play and that holds value for a receiver that is younger than most people seem to think. He’s not a superior option given the influx of talent/upside at the position, but don’t lose track of him when assembling your roster –- high floor options hold significant value in the right spot.
Godwin’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Godwin land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Godwin lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
11) Puka Nacua | LAR
12) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
13) Nico Collins | HOU
14) Rashee Rice | KC
15) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Drake London | ATL
19) Malik Nabers | FA
20) Tee Higgins | CIN
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Stefon Diggs | HOU
23) Cooper Kupp | LAR
24) DeVonta Smith | PHI
25) Zay Flowers | BAL
26) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
27) Davante Adams | LV
28) Mike Evans | TB
29) Tank Dell | HOU
30) Jayden Reed | GB
31) Rome Odunze | FA
32) Terry McLaurin | WAS
33) Deebo Samuel | SF
34) Jordan Addison | MIN
35) Keenan Allen | CHI
36) Mike Williams | NYJ
37) George Pickens | PIT
38) Chris Godwin | TB
39) Josh Downs | IND
40) Courtland Sutton | DEN
Should You Trade Godwin in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Godwin in a dynasty? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer makes it easy to find the right trade offer in seconds.
The concern surrounding Godwin is his lack of scoring upside, and that’s no secret. He has scored once every 28.5 catches over the past three seasons, a rate that has fallen off a cliff from where it stood in the three seasons prior (once every 9.1 receptions).
CONTINUE READING: Dynasty Consensus Rankings
There is no real path to that number correcting itself. Evans is a bonafide star when it comes to finding the end zone (94 career scores, 13+ in three of his past four seasons), and the presence of secondary options in the short-to-intermediate passing game (RB Rachaad White, TE Cade Otton, etc.) cap Godwin’s potential in this Mayfield-led offense.
Understanding the limitations in terms of a ceiling is important, but so is understanding the metrics that support his elevated floor. Godwin produced the eighth-highest route win rate in 2023 (55.1%) and ranked even better (second-best) when facing man coverage.
Getting open and presenting throwing windows is a skill that he has, and that is important given his role on this offense.
Godwin isn’t a league winner and shouldn’t be viewed as such. But every good dynasty team cycles through consistent options alongside their centerpieces, and the veteran Buccaneer is a great fit for that role.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Draft Strategies
If you’re rebuilding, moving Godwin makes sense, as his projectable consistency will be more valuable to a contending team than to you. If you’re set to make a run over the next 2-3 seasons, I’d sit tight with him and the floor that you can bank on. The odds are good that he won’t have a breakout season that makes him a league-winner, but that’s not the role of every player on your roster — that’s easy to lose track of at times.
Read More 2024 Dynasty Profiles
Using the table below, browse our 2024 dynasty profiles for more than 170 players so you can dominate your dynasty drafts!
You can sort by player, team, or position. For mobile users, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.