Chris Godwin has caught 202 passes over the past two seasons but will be operating in 2023 without Tom Brady throwing him passes. Who the change under center will impact the most from a fantasy football perspective is a burning question this offseason, and properly evaluating this situation could well impact the final standings of your league.
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Chris Godwin’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 25th in points per game last season (18.4) and will now be operating without Tom Brady under center.
That sentence is naturally going to lead to panic, something that is being reflected in the draft prices of both Godwin and Mike Evans, but how much worse can this offense really be? They had a QB with a Hall of Fame résumé last season, but he was far from that pedigree in his final season.
As mentioned, Evans joins Godwin in this WR room that figures to again be quite concentrated. Russell Gage is the only other name you likely know at the receiver position on this roster, and his target-earning potential is proven to be limited, making raw target share a non-concern for both star receivers.
you hear that? that’s the sound of mike evans’ and chris godwin’s ADP creeping up pic.twitter.com/0FBL50vlgO
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) August 11, 2023
Gone from this backfield is Leonard Fournette (73 catches for a career-high 723 yards last season), with Rachaad White stepping into the featured role. He is also a viable pass catcher, so we aren’t talking about a major change in terms of where the targets are going, but he is certainly less proven, and that brings risk to the offense as a whole.
Cade Otton caught 42 balls as a rookie and is an interesting prospect, but fearing his target share isn’t factoring into how I value Tampa Bay’s WRs.
Is Godwin a Good Fantasy Pick?
I think he is, yeah! I’m willing to buy the dip for a player that I think is not only good but unique for this team. Last season, Godwin was the only Buccaneer with more than 25 receptions from the slot … he had 67.
The uncertainty at the QB position is a real thing, but it’s more than baked into the asking price for Godwin this summer. Yes, I think there will be some down weeks that burn you, but his skill set profiles as the most stable during a QB change, and that makes him valuable as you get into (or past) Round 5.
- PFN Consensus: 56th overall
- ADP: 56th overall