Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin was not the 1B to Mike Evans‘ 1A last season. Instead, he was the clear WR2 on an offense that could only support one impact fantasy football option. Should Best Ball drafters be avoiding Godwin this season?
Chris Godwin’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Godwin’s career started off with your classic just-enough rookie season, a step-forward sophomore season, and a true-breakout third year. While Godwin has never again reached the heights of his 19.6-fantasy-points-per-game 2019 season, he averaged at least 14.9 fantasy points per game every year since … that is, until 2023.
After starting his career as a prolific downfield threat, Godwin has morphed into a glorified checkdown. His 9.0 aDOT (average depth of target) was outside the top 75 last season.
The rest of Godwin’s metrics paint an even more concerning picture. After four straight seasons with over a 70% catch rate, Godwin dropped to 63.8% last season. Although his target share ticked up a bit to 23.8%, the massive decrease in overall volume going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield meant only one receiver could really make a fantasy impact. Unfortunately for Godwin, that man was Evans.
Interestingly enough, not much else changed from 2022 to 2023 for Godwin. His targets-per-route-run rate and yards per route run remained roughly the same. The main culprit of Godwin’s downfall was volume. The problem for 2024 is: Why exactly would anything change?
Should You Draft Godwin in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Naturally, after last season’s 12.3 fantasy points per game and WR34 finish, Godwin’s price tag is much lower than it was a year ago. That makes the opportunity cost for drafting Godwin far more palatable.
Currently, Godwin is actually going lower than where he finished last year. That at least provides some hope for upward mobility. But if you draft the WR30 at WR40, how significant of an edge is that really providing? Of course, it’s useful. But ideally, there would at least be a chance he can do better.
The Bucs re-signed Mayfield and extended Evans. Rachaad White and his pass-catching prowess remain in the backfield.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
The Bucs did attempt 611 passes last season, which was more than I expected. They remained a pass-first offense, throwing the ball 57% of the time in a neutral game script. But that was still a decrease of over 100 pass attempts from the Brady Era. At best, they will throw the ball the same amount this season. At worst, they will throw even less.
Given where Godwin goes in fantasy drafts, I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking a shot on a talented player to rebound. Godwin is still just 28 years old. It’s not as if he’s over 30. But even at his depressed cost, I am looking elsewhere in Best Ball drafts.