The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Tennessee Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Is this the year Okonkwo becomes a top-12 option, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Every season, no matter how early you start your work for fantasy football, you have a short list of “my guys.” The ones you will go to bat for and are willing to go out on a limb and say will not just be relevant but are primed to break out and vastly outperform their draft-day value.
That is especially true at tight end, where finding production outside a few names can be tricky. In 2019, Mark Andrews was my breakout pick at tight end. In 2020, it was Jonnu Smith. 2021 was Cole Kmet. Last year it was Evan Engram and David Njoku. For 2023, my breakout tight end is Okonkwo.
Okonkwo is a pure athlete who ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 6’2″, 243 pounds. A fourth-round pick in 2022, Okonkwo scored three touchdowns on just 32 receptions and was targeted on 33% of his routes, the second-highest rate for a TE last year.
Totaling 450 yards on his 46 targets (10.6% target share), Okonkwo was the TE25 overall and 28th in per game scoring at 4.8 in 0.5 PPR formats as he split time with Austin Hooper (60 targets).
Look at the Titans’ wide receiver room and how it stands right now. It’s Treylon Burks and then a collection of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, Chris Moore, Racey McMath, and other guys who will rarely see the field. Okonkwo averaged 14.1 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target and can realistically be considered the Titans’ No. 2 target and played nearly 40% of his snaps from the slot in 2022.
I get Tennessee is a low-volume offense. They ranked 28th in total offense last year with under 300 total yards per game, including a 30th-ranked passing attack. But this is already a low-volume position as a whole.
Use Kmet as an example. He was the TE7 and averaged just 4.0 targets a game (69), and the collective average of the top 12, including Travis Kelce’s 152 targets, was 5.1 per game.
At a position lacking difference-making players, we have one of the most athletic guys entering his second year off of the second-highest target/route rate that will be the No. 2 target in a team devoid of pass catchers and will blow away all of his usage metrics.
What else could you want in a breakout profile? My early projections have Okonkwo finishing as a TE1 with around 60-65 receptions for 725-775 yards and 4-5 touchdowns.
Should You Draft Chigoziem Okonkwo This Year?
The larger hangup is not the potential upside for Okonkwo but where he could go in fantasy football drafts as more and more managers clue in on his potential upside.
So far, Okonkwo sits in a strange middle zone that has Okonwko coming off the board as the TE15 with an ADP in the late 140s, which would place him just on the cusp of a Round 12/13 selection.
But there is significant variance in his ADP across sites. On some, he is going around 120th, but on others, as late as 169. That will be something we likely expect to carry over into the primary draft season, as it just takes one manager to have Okonkwo as their breakout or “my guy” for them to reach a round or even two above his ADP to ensure they have him on their roster.
While we are paying a premium for someone who has not “done it” yet, if you opt to wait on the position, Okonkwo in the 11th or 12th round is still fantastic value.
He is going in a range where there are no proven players or guys with shaky outlooks like Devon Achane, Elijah Moore, Odell Beckham Jr., and Zach Charbonnet.
If I do choose to wait on drafting my TE and pass on Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson, then Okonkwo will be my default late-round TE selection that I would be willing to take off the board as soon as guys like David Njoku, Pat Freiermuth, and Dalton Schultz are off the board. For me, Okonkwo should go right with this group.